Dem Dems Aiming At 2020

Yeah I can agree with you on that. Mainly from reading up on it it is just a momentum and fundraising boost really. Candidates can be like "oh look at me I'm a winner!"

Its confusing, CNN has always had great election coverage with Wolf Blitzer, but this guy is throwing so much information out there and it makes me happy I live in a state with a primary. Walk in, vote, get my sticker, go home.

Judging from the historically low turnout they predicting it seems many people do not like this system.

We (household) were all talking about how stupid the idea is. Like seriously, waste 2+ hours to stand there and be counted?

It's hard enough to get people to simply go and spend 5 minutes on a pointless vote, let alone hours

Oh you know the Democrats are scrambling right now, Bidden and Warren were supposed to be their contenders and now it's looking like Bernie and Buttigieg got off to a big start.

Just means the Dems gonna try harder to rig the next few primaries or "adjust" the news coverage more in their favor.

Nah.

Still no word on when Iowa plans on releasing more data. They haven't done a great job at telling us what exactly the problem is, but that guy did go out there and take some tough questions.

The problem is they didn't get the *** out of Iowa. And actually want to live there.

The app developers, or some of then, were computer nerds from Hillary 2016. Most of the funding came from dem donors (who are bailing out in droves.)

The app was neither well tested nor properly taught to the caucus workers who are disproportionately of retirement age.

Both the dems and the caucus system got a black eye over this. The dems deserved it.

Nevada had signed up for the app, they dropped it like a hot rock.

So far its Buttigieg and Sanders 62% of precincts reporting.

BTW the 2012 republican caucuses took 16 days to fully report.

Oh yeah, Trump took the GOP caucuses. Surprise! not....

Might be using Common Core to tally up the votes. Give em a few more weeks to get to the answer.

Uh huh, what about Trump refusing to shake her hand?

Well it certainly seems like Pelosi won the biggest moment award, every media outlet is ranting and raving about it. She completely stole Trump's spotlight.

You cannot make that argument at all. I see Fox News is trying to frame it as an "alleged snub," its ***. He refused to shake her hand, period. She got even. And with all the attention its getting, Trump must hate it.

I was wrong. 12 precincts never reported.

I'm 75. While I amn't as technically engaged as most gen Xers, I am well ahead of the curve for boomers.

Full disclosure: I am too old to be a boomer.

Meanwhile Trump is the President and Nervous Nancy is still nervous.

Nevermind that, everyone keeps looking at Iowa in a vacuum not the larger picture.

1. ⁠Look at the RCP betting odds. Two weeks ago, Biden was 1st in national odds at 38%, Sanders 2nd at 28.6%. As of last nights latest odds, Sanders is now in front at 41.3%, Biden second at 22.7%. Vegas sees the whole picture.

2. ⁠Biden's 4th/5th place finish in Iowa is huge for Sanders. If he winds up finishing 3rd or 4th behind Warren or Buttigieg in NH or NV, he's toast. By the time you get to his "firewall" in SC, most of his support will have slipped away as it is, which is huge for Sanders.

3. ⁠If Biden does fall apart, Buttigieg or Bloomberg become the next logical centrist prized horse. The issue here is that both Buttigieg and Bloomberg poll *** HOOORRRRIBLE among minorities. It's why neither of them are realistic candidates. If Biden were to drop out of the race, yes, a ton of white centrist democrats would shift to Bloomberg or Buttigieg. But the majority of that minority vote would go to Bernie, which would basically give him enough momentum to likely sweep the nomination.

4. ⁠In Iowa alone, Sanders got 43% of the non-white caucus vote. Which could be a signal that Sanders has more support among minorities than originally anticipated, we'll have to see how that number looks coming out of NH and NV. Because the assumptions been based on polling that non-white voters would flock to Biden. If that polling is incorrect, Sanders could sweep even without Biden falling apart.

When you take everything together, it seems clear to me at least that Sanders is the easy favorite to win the nomination right now and that lead will only build if/when he wins NH and NV. If the polling is anything to believe, he's going to win NH by double digit points as well, so it won't be a toss up like Iowa it'll be commanding victory speeches for Bernie and every network having no choice but to talk about Bernie's victories. He's currently polling even w/ Biden in NV, but with IA and NH results, he should win NV as well, we'll see by how much. By the time we reach SC, with two more primaries and THREE more debates mixed in there, it's very possible that Biden loses SC to Bernie and drops out of the race leading into Super Tuesday. Because if Biden loses SC, there's about a 0% chance he can win the nomination.

TLDR: Biden’s bid is all but done.

Yeah, two kids went to a fight, Trump threw the first punch, Pelosi threw the last one. And her last punch is still the top headline on every website, and has Trump tweeting nonstop about it. Perfect trolling indeed.

If I worked for the Biden campaign, my counterpoint would be Iowa was never Biden country. Its very white, and its trending Republican. And despite Sanders doing well amongst minorities, Biden did well there too, and its such a small number of minority voters that it shouldn't be indicative of anything. Also, Iowa is a caucus. Caucuses are stupid, discourage turnout, and very seldom have any impact on the actual race. Lets see what happens at the actual primary in NH, then win SC, and go from there.