Sa/Ta Bonus Cap Thx+ ? +4 +5 More...?

1) it's pretty hypocritical of you to say that people shouldn't take your theory with a grain of salt unless they have no proof otherwise, when you don't provide any proof that it does. burden of proof lies with YOU, it's pretty dumb to say "hey, here's my theory, why don't you guys go to dynamis and bring no thf and test it for me?"

2) shamaya was saying it's not about r/ex vs "item gil drop", but about base drop rate, whether or not the items are rare/ex.

3) caps lock is cruise control for cool?

Eh, regarding #(2), you guys did and didn't correctly understand what I said.

The unique point I was trying to drive at was that there is a possibility that certain items are effected differently by TH traits than others, not based on base drop rate or by label (R vs EX vs otherwise), but by the structure of the drop pool. This will illustrate better:

http://wiki.ffxiclopedia.org/wiki/Up_in_Arms

If you go there and scroll down you will see the Up in Arms' treasure chest drop pool.
I have never been a proponent of the slot/roll/re-roll theory of TH, because there has never been any evidence for it. Neither was there evidence for the 'straight multiplier' theory, but I preferred it because it seemed like the simplest explanation.

But, the re-roll/slot theory could be true. And if it is true, TH will have a greater/lesser effect on an item's drop rate depending on how many slots it appears in.

Back to drop pool. Looking at Up in Arms, you will see that the pool has defined slots. This may be a BC, but there is reason to think that drop pools for mobs/NM's look exactly like this. Now look at what Kirin can drop,
http://wiki.ffxiclopedia.org/wiki/Kirin.

Imagine that his drop pool looks like the one in Up in Arms. He can drop up to two of many items, including Wyrmal Pants. He can only drop one Kirin's Osode or Kirin's Pole.
Now let's pretend for a second that TH works by offering an item one more roll. Kirin's Pole appears in one slot. Wyrmal appears in two slots. But if TH is acting on items, and not on the slots, then Kirin's Pole would be rolled for 2 times, doubling its drop rate. Wyrmal, previously rolled for 2 times (2 slots), is now given another roll and rolled for 3 times.
The method of action TH was using was the same for both items, but because of how the drop pool was structured, Kirin's Pole drop rate increased by 100%, and Wyrmal Legs' drop rate increased by only 50%.

This example may not be perfect. But consider that giving something a re-roll would double its drop rate if it only appeared in one slot, and thus be consistent with TH2's documented +100% drop rate potency. If TH1 worked by offering a 50% chance to get another re-roll, then it would be consistent with TH1's documented +50% drop rate (see: Enedin's Testing).

My idea of this possibility has nothing to do with the item being rare/ex or otherwise. It's not about base drop rate. It has to do with the structure of the drop pool; how many slots is an item appearing in. I'm not saying that this is the way TH works; it probably doesn't. But it goes to show that it is possible that TH acts differently on some items and not others.

Enedin's Testing on TH potency was done on farm mobs. Mobs without complicated drop pools like Kirin or Up in Arms. So it could well be that the potency levels he found in his testing may not carry over. It may be that TH in fact does have a stronger effect on currency than AF.

We are ignorant of TH's method of action. Therefore, we're restricted in what we can confidently say.

Wrong, i said i did dyanmis with and without thf and is what i am talking about, how about you guy? (sometime read 2x help)


I understood what shamaya said, no matter what, 5 ticket = 5x more chance (sorta), i also added if the drop rate is that sucky let say 1%, of course 5 ticket wont help you too much bc that sorta mean ~2%, compare currency let say is 50% mean close to 100% every time.

Bc yes i do understand if you flip a god damn coin 5 time, the chance you get face side 5 time is 1/2/2/2/2/2, so .03125 chance you actualy not getting the drop, so you have 96.875 chance to get the item.

There no need to do all the mats out here, as i did say, at that point who give a hell about TH for rare/ex if the impact on it is so tinny (10 more AF per yr), and ya lol that if TH even affect rare/ex item (who hell really know).


...


Yes pretty close, but ya, there no possibility of 100% drop, no matter what TH you have, the max drop rate would be 99.9, only way you can get 100% drop, is when the drop is actualy a 100% drop.

sometimes read what you say help

I said this bc i did dynamis without THF, how about them? Oh ya they base what they say with a parse that been done on a farming mob that don't even drop rare/ex.. AH AH AH. Seriously?

Not telling them go do dynamis to built me some data, i said if they think THF affect that much rare/ex, then they should do 1 run only to see how wrong they are, if they too pansy to do it then ...

*Edit* I bet they don't even do dynamis, they still reading how to play FFXI writed by joe-blow with his parse. caught.

1 run hardly qualifies as a test.

As I have said before, unless you to multiple tests over thousands of mobs over many days, no results are going to be accurate.

Basically, whenever a random number generator is involved, ***'s gonna be random.

Are some people saying you cant sell R/ex items? lol

Just look at the Bazaar section.

But they don't need to do dynamis >< What about abyssea, sky, sea?

As i stated in other page, we kill NM none stop in abyssea, you think we even bother anymore on TH? No we don't, we focus on trigger prio #1, and we get tons of seal, only major difference i see when we have thf, is how we get more item that can be sold. (gil item)

For sky when i was running my shell, at the end we completely stop bother with THF for god, and we got same rare/ex drop, we did not even notice difference at all, and i am talking about a 33% drop on B.Haidate, if the TH would have work that much, that should have been close to 92% chance drop, that never been anything close to that every time we had thf...

Luck? maybe, we just got 15 B.Haidate that way with 33% drop rate and without thf, i guess we got real real lucky. [alway possible]

Also adding, i will lol big time if i see a PT hold amhuluk for 30 min just to push TH up ><, @ that point they could actually pop/kill him 3 time.

Noone really knows how TH works. Unless SE gives us the formula, we will never know. Just take a damn thf with you and hope the random number generator is feeling generous.

Most I've gotten is Th9, but that was when I was th5, now I'm th6 so, only got +4, who knows, maybe cap is 5? Maybe even 4, fights aren't long enough to get much higher I think, unless you get lucky with SATA

as a THF 26+ i can assure you that the entire TH+ is shooped. I can tell from the SATA and having seen a lot of drops in my time.
That with been going for you have seen TH+9 gone for with additional server identification. On Phoenix, we am the been getting TH+18, but i did heard thot based on server you been start on. If you transfer server, you gert -3 TH+ cap for eavary tiem you done it. also, if name been do more then 7 letturs it anuthur -2. is you in linkshell at the time it -4 so TAEK OF YOU'RE LINKSHELL WHIN TH+!!!!!it the only way getted gud tresor.

Tolk to a GM like [SGM]Blixtev, her am best GM in gaem and will nevar does anything been for the like of coming to watch is beginning for character can not move follow in reliquary.

Forgot to mention, we did a dyna xarch and got 7, I repeat, 7 rdm hats lol, plus shadow ring, shadow mantle, and maybe about 20+ other afs

lol

And ontopic:

Friend of mine got TH11 earlier today, level 90 + TK and AA + atma.

So, +5.
New highest I've seen!

TH formula on BG we found this summer is really easy:

http://www.bluegartr.com/threads/95489-TH-testing-final-results/page6

Exactly what i did explain with the 50%.. you have 96.875% chance if you have TH4. That still don't explain how Byakko Haidate without THF = 33% drop rate, then theory would say .66 ^ 5 that you don't get it (0.1252332576) so 87.5% chance of drop vs 12.5 for no drop.

Anyway that would have make sense if i saw more haidate with thf, but no, that did not happen.

for 1% drop is the same deal (say AF again)

TH4 for 1% drop would be .99 ^ 5 = 0.9509900499 that you don't get the drop, so 5% chance you actualy get AF. Say your dynamis shell kill over 200 mob, then 1% mean you more likely will get something like 2 AF max per run, @ 5% you should get like 10 AF. Again, when we had thf and we had no thf, the difference was not that huge...

i do understand currency work a bit different, since they can drop up to 4 or 5 currency per kill...

say each currency is 50% drop, then Th4 mean 1-.5^5 = .96875 chance for each of them. Then you take back .96875 and apply to all currency:

you have .96875^4 (88.07% chance to get full drop)
you have .03125^4 (.000000095367431640 chance to get no drop) [almost imposible]



Do you still think it affect rare/ex same as item you can sell/bazz/trade? I really have doubt, if it affect it, is not working the same way as ppl parsed.

Edit: You need TH68 to make a 1% drop go to 50% (.99^68). So assuming is extra ticket as ppl parsed, then you should see a good difference when you get let say TH up to 10. Let see if ppl get more rare/ex now...

No, you and others misunderstood ;(. TH traits effect drop rates in the same way, at least b4 this update. If I were to quote Enedin (I myself was citing outdated information), I had said that TH2 would add +100% drop rate. I meant +100% to the drop rate multiplier; that was my bad. Thus, if the drop rate prior was 25%, it'd be as if 25%*100% (0.25 * 1 = 0.25); With TH2 it'd be 25%*(100% + 100%) aka (0.25 * (1 + 1)) = 50%. Whether something had a 1% drop rate or a 50% drop rate, TH2 trait would do the same thing, double the likelyhood that you'd see it. Save you half your time trying to get a drop.

But this was outdated. I never got to finish reading Enedin's BG thread. As he said, a version of the re-roll theory is actually true in light of his data.
Also incorrect here, as the majority of the community is. I can't believe people are so HELP I AM TRAPPED IN 2006 PLEASE SEND A TIME MACHINE as to actually have believed that TH+ equipment was as if adding another trait. We know that a warriors double attack trait is 10%. So when you see something with "Double Attack +5" to it, you're really telling me you think it'd add the freaking potency of 5 double attack traits to your double attack rate? IE bringing your double attack rate up from 10% to 60%?

Stuff like that was tested, just as TH+1 was tested to increase drops by a flat 1%. A 1% item becomes 2%. A 20% item becomes 21%. This is how it was understood, though TH+1 appears to be the same now as a TH trait after this most recent update. There was never a TH4; people just said it like that. It was only ever TH2+2.



Lastly, people need to seriously commit Enedin's Testing to memory, if they ever want to talk about how TH was prior to this update without being a fool.Just one last comment. Firstly it's apparent that this has changed now with this update. Secondly, gotta be careful saying things like "it's like having an extra character to lot with." While that may look to be so in your data, Enedin, don't forget that your testing was done on simple fodder mobs. As I mentioned before, we don't know the specific method of action that TH uses to produce its results. Therefore, it may be so that TH produces different effects on a large and more complex drop pool like Kirin's, than on simple farming mobs.

WTF? Are you doing it on purpose, or you just read all i post wrong? Oo

Enedin Theory is exactly what i said, i mean common give me a break or read what i post...

I even posted a code in Basic to make you test it, if you think my mats is wrong on lottery ticked.

25% chance = 75% chance to loose, so 1-.75^2 (TH1) = 0.4375, that exacly what 'Enedin Theory' is saying, i am sorry is it bc my number had more precision you did not take time to read?


Edit: How the hell +TH gear would work on ticket? you have 2.1 ticket, so if the 3rd ticket win then another random form 1 to 10 would process to see if that ticket is valid? (interesting)

Common, last news i read about TH on wiki was exactly talking about number of chance per TH, and they also had parse of mob proving it, they also added the same i wrote about mob that have a chance to multi-drop item, where did you take your information to say this is all wrong...


Can you read it? God please read it again then come back and Read it again...

After you done read it, pop my BASIC code i posted and try it. Oh of course now there a new system, but to jump on conclusion SE completely changed they way of TH?!? wtf.. i'm tire of ppl calling other retard, just look into a glass next time.

*edit*

Same as i stated before. La la la la... how many time do i have to repeat the same freaking god damn thing. Enedin theory still work on kirin, but only on item that you can sell/bazz/ah. And that is from my experience @ sky and dynamis, so are we ever going to agree anyway, that TH do not seem to affect rare/ex the same way as gil item? Or ppl out here will pop more stuff that not even make any sense. Do Enedin have to post about how he see his theory not working well on rare/ex?

I already stated 15 Haidate droped for us @ 33% drop rate without THF, Apply Enedin Theory:

(Th4) on 33% drop = 1-.67^5 (TH4) = 0.8649874893 chance to get haidate.

Then let say TH gear don't apply:

(Th2) on 33% drop = 1-.67^3 (TH2) = 0.699237 chance to get


then what would be the TH+ gear? let see... hmmm 1-.67^4 = 0.79848879 if you actually had 4 ticket, but let say is 1/10 as i said, so ((1-.67^4)-(1-.67^3))/10 = 0.009925179 (0.9% chance more per TH+ gear) That would be *** retard of SE.

And 0.9% per TH+ gear would be on item that is high as 33%, WOW imagine a 1% drop rate at this point...

Kclub = 1% drop, ((1-.99^4)-(1-.99^3))/10 = .0000970299 (0.00970299%)

/em drop TH+ gear right now....

[33% base drop item] (base on lottery system)

TH00 = 33% -----------------> (1-.67^1)
TH01 = 55.11 ----------------> (1-.67^2)
TH02 = 69.9237 --------------> (1-.67^3)
TH03 = 79.848879 -----------> (1-.67^4)
TH04 = 86.49874893 ---------> (1-.67^5)
TH05 = 90.9541617831 ------> (1-.67^6)
TH06 = 93.939288394677 ---> (1-.67^7)
TH07 = 95.9393232244336 --> (1-.67^8)
TH08 = 97.2793465603705 --> (1-.67^9)
TH09 = 98.1771621954482 --> (1-.67^10)
TH10 = 98.7786986709503 --> (1-.67^11)

[10% base drop item] (base on lottery system)

TH00 = 10% -----------------> (1-.90^1)
TH01 = 19% -----------------> (1-.90^2)
TH02 = 27.1 -----------------> (1-.90^3)
TH03 = 34.39 -----------------> (1-.90^4)
TH04 = 40.951 --------------> (1-.90^5)
TH05 = 46.8559 ------------> (1-.90^6)
TH06 = 52.17031 -------> (1-.90^7)
TH07 = 56.953279 -------> (1-.90^8)
TH08 = 61.2579511 ------> (1-.90^9)
TH09 = 65.13215599 ----> (1-.90^10)
TH10 = 68.618940391 ----> (1-.90^11)

So what we see here? It is fair enough to say after TH7, the difference is not as great. Discretion to anyone to push it far as they wan.

Formula is not that hard also, 1-(1-(P/100))^TH (P = base % drop)

Code

Do
DropRate = 10 '10%
TH = 5
n = n + 1
For t = 1 To TH + 1
If Int(Rnd(1) * 100) > (99 - DropRate) Then win = win + 1: Exit For
Next
Loop While n < 1000000

Debug.Print win / n

Geez, lol. Thanks for defending me, Shamaya, as always :)

Before update, it was clear that the TH traits and the added effect items weren't the same. Otherwise you'd end up with huge drop rate numbers at TH7 and beyond - which is insane. I'm just repeating what Shamaya is saying, about the WAR job trait Double Attack.

After the update... No idea. I did my testing before the update, I'm a bit sad that it might be obsolete now, but I achieved my goal: testing the potency of TH on common drop items.

If you're willing to test TH potency on ra/ex items, go ahead, but your looking at tens of thousands of tested mobs. I picked common items because I would need less mobs killed for accurate results, since the drop rate is higher. A 2% error rate on a 48% drop doesn't matter as much as on a 3% drop.

tl;dr I appreciate you defending the formula that we found, but I cannot believe that it works for TH7-10-superhigh. Drop rates are just too insane.

Sorry llax I hadn't refreshed the window and seen your last post. I actually don't have time to read it now though, so I'll have to read it later.

My personal best so far was 10.

Lol. Nice to know there's essentially no cap, though. Will continue to strive for higher numbers!

Off topic: Welcome back, Sham.

Meh, any average abyssea EXP PT kill 2 mob/min, mean 120 kill for the data every hours, can be done quick. (and 1 mob per 30 sec is freaking slow PT)

That test would also include item that you did not include...

Not like is going to be hard to redo the test...

This thread is gettin in deep.
Llax, you're definitely not a dumb guy. People were just questioning whether or not you had many years of (very accurate and specific) dynamis data. This question about dynamis records is a common one, but it's very hard to find a dynamis LS that does dynamis for a long time without a thief for a lot of the runs, and also has very good records. Similarly, it's a simple thing to say that it would be easy to test/retest. We've seen this said and done many times, and still we have nothing to conclude.

Your C++ looking thing is too hard for me to read >,<. I respect code but even after trying hard to read it, the syntax is just too confusing for someone without the right knowledge. High school algebra is easier ^^

***

That is a good attempt to try to include TH+1 into the roll theory. But as you saw, it looks too strange; it doesn't work. As I said, this is not the case. TH+1 has been tested to add a single 1% to drop rate (after TH traits if I remember). So if drop rate is 20% after TH2, it became 21% with TH2+1. 50% drop rate became 51%. If you look at the treasure hunter wiki, click talk, and hit ctrl+f and search for "th+1" or "divisortheory", you will find this test.
Yeah, first, forgive me because since April, I only played 1 month in July and I haven't played at all, until last week; I just came back. But I see what you are looking at. It was probably added by Enedin or Thorny or someone else from the BG thread that Enedin linked. What I was saying--TH1 being *150% and TH2 being *200%, was the thoery in the first post of that thread. But I never read Enedin's final comment in that thread; about the roll (ticket) theory.
However, when I cleaned up that treasure hunter wiki article a long time ago, I added the "Testing and Theory" section, with a disclaimer on it. Things there should be taken with a grain of salt. But so should my statements about TH+1, etc.


Unfortunately we will have to be very skeptical about the re-roll theory (sorry Enedin). The two final posts in that BG thread show a lot of reason to doubt the re-roll theory in the case of multi-drops. And if you go to the previous page and check Thorny's drop rate with and without TH, you will see that there are big differences with what the re-roll math would predict, and the drop rates he got. Even though the re-roll math may look close... close isn't always good enough. One time when testing Dex-Agi and crit rate, I had a formula that looked soooooo close to true given the data at the time. But after very very extensive testing, it turned out that my formula was nowhere near close to correct.


There are too many holes in the re-roll theory. It has to be something different or something similar but more complicated. I find that I have to agree with Llax in that if the re-roll theory of TH is true, some drop rates we should be getting appear a lot higher than we're actually getting. Multi-drops aren't adding up. And unfortunately the targets of the testing are limited.
It's also hard, llax, to use the drop rates shown on wiki. I wouldn't trust them. I mean, who fought Byakko withotu TH anyway? Those drop rates most likely include TH2. But how many don't? How many include TH2+1 or TH2+2?

Either way, we're wasting a lot of energy discussing the "potency" topic in great detail right now. Because it is clear that it is very possible that TH has changed. The new proc messages make it look like TH+1 = TH trait. TH "level" potency is unmeasured, and it can go up to a staggering-looking 10+. We have no idea what real effect these numbers are having on drop rate. The "potency" of TH should be re-evaluated. And in addition, our idea of TH could remain very inaccurate if TH's "method of action" is never tested.


And thanks for the welcome, Xeno ^^. Can't say if I'm back or for how long, but fun game is fun. BTW I see you live in S Korea. I'm most likely moving there next year.

I pretty much assume with the new TH system Square enix couldn't make the chat message say "The effectiveness of Treasure Hunter has risen to III+4%" or something indepth based on maximum trait, so they just added straight number.

I think we might be looking too far into the message itself on that behalf.

I've always pretty much assumed 1-3 are "Base" traits, I.E Their normal Multipliers, where as 4~?? are the "+1% Drop rate" bonuses we'd see with Thief Knife or Asn Armlets etc.

Karbie, so are you saying that you think that the following is true:
TH3 = TH2+1
Both will show "level 4" in the long when you see the first proc, right?
I see what you're saying about the possibility of 4+. But how do the traits and the +1 gear stats matchup at the very start of the fight?

Mine bumps up to 8 on first trigger.

TH3 from traits, 4 from dagger, 5 from armlets, 6 from feet, 7 from Atma.

I think that that explains what you were asking. Correct if I'm wrong.

In a sens thats funny...
Se finally give to players how thf stick on mobs, but they still argue on how the hell it work...lolz

You know, this matter dont really matter ;x since we cant control it in any way, not like how to skill up thf+...

Well personnaly i still didnt get +5...someone who got it can post a ss ? so i make sur it really is possible ?

@xeno think u could get a ss of your friend ?

Yeah, I posted a screen shot of my 10 further up. Will try for an 11 tonight.

All this sound interesting, i mean maybe we all right and the missing data was actually the part that i was ignoring about TH gear.

so maybe the first TH1 and TH2 give you the 'ticket effect' then all gear actualy give 1% each as you said.

Mean, 10% drop turn 11% with TH3, 12% with TH4, 13% with th5 ect, then you apply the Ticket math:

1-.90^1 (TH0) [10%] (NO TH.)
1-.90^2 (TH1) [19%] (Treasure Hunter I)
1-.90^3 (TH2) [27.1%] (Treasure Hunter II)
1-.90^3 (TH3) [27.1%] (Treasure Hunter III, allow you to increase base chance by 1%)
1-.89^3 (TH4) [29.5031] (gear/or triger)
1-.88^3 (TH5) [31.8528] (gear/or triger)
1-.87^3 (TH6) [34.1497] (gear/or triger)
1-.86^3 (TH7) [36.3944] (gear/or triger)
1-.85^3 (TH8) [38.5875] (gear/or triger)
1-.84^3 (TH9) [40.7296] (gear/or triger)
1-.83^3 (TH10) [42.8213] (gear/or triger)

That sound real fair deal, plus you said someone parsed each TH gear was 1%, then maybe SE did not change anything, they just gave a chance (for who have TH3 trait) to be able build let say 'fake TH gear' or let just say add up 1% chance on initial drop rate before the 3 ticket roll.

Kinda possible, but still make me wonder.

For sure, more test have to be done now with this new TH3.

Shamaya, I remember that Alla post saying TH+1 was 1%, but the guy did pretty mysterieous about that. Do you have a link? I vaguely remember it being 19%>20%ish, but I'm not sure.

And I need to update the wiki, but since I don't play anymore (or very very rarely), I don't feel urged to do it really. But my initial theory is bull, it's not a direct drop rate multiplier like +50 or +100% as I first thought, it's indeed the formula we found on BG, which I posted earlier.

What you can do to test whether they changed it, it's really easy: just re-do the mobs I tested. Most of them (cept the gigantobugards really) are very squishy, and your test shouldn't take more than a day, if you knuckle up. If the TH0>TH1>TH2 values don't change, than you're one step closer to proving that the formula didn't change.

Hmm. Maybe I'll do it. But not today, not feeling too good.