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Coronavirus death toll estimation USA
 Phoenix.Thorbean
Server: Phoenix
Game: FFXI
Posts: 397
By Phoenix.Thorbean 2020-04-29 04:45:12
And remember 2% of you have to die for the greater good of the economy!
Almost 7 Million Americans will die from this?
330000000 population
1000000 infected (0.3%)
55000 deaths (0.016%) so far
Looking at Oxford estimates it seems to fit:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
TL;DR (read it anyway, what else are you doing today?
"The current COVID outbreak seems to be following previous pandemics: initial CFRs start high and trend downwards. For example, In Wuhan, the CFR has gone down from 17% in the initial phase to near 1% in the late stage. It is increasingly clear that current testing strategies are not capturing everybody. In South Korea, considerable numbers who tested positive were also asymptomatics- likely driving the rapid worldwide spread.
CFR rates are subject to selection bias as more severe cases are tested – generally those in the hospital settings or those with more severe symptoms. The number of currently infected asymptomatics is uncertain: estimates put it at least a half are asymptomatic; the proportion not coming forward for testing is also highly doubtful (i.e. you are symptomatic, but you do not present for testing). Therefore we can assume the IFR is significantly lower than the CFR.
Emerging evidence suggests many more people are infected. than tested. In Vo Italy, at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, about 3%, had already been infected – most were completely asymptomatic.
We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.36%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease, the proportion asymptomatic (and the demographics of those affected) means this IFR is likely an overestimate.
In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies somewhere between 0.01% and 0.19%.
Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.36%.*"
Not that it isn't still serious, but fear sells news papers and generates clicks, like a positive feedback loop.
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Phoenix.Thorbean
Server: Phoenix
Game: FFXI
Posts: 397
By Phoenix.Thorbean 2020-04-29 04:49:44
Fail tube, hurray no edit.
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Administrator
Server: Hyperion
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Posts: 195
By Cruz Missive 2020-04-29 06:16:50
This is always the problem with public health. If you do nothing, and people get wiped out, it's "why didn't anyone warn us?!". And if you do something, and people are okay, it's "WHAT WAS THE BIG DEAL"??!?!?!"
Almost 7 Million Americans will die from this?
All of those original estimates were assuming we did nothing. We did something, so obviously those numbers will be wrong. The open questions are:
1) Did we do enough?
2) Could we have done more?
3) Are we loosening restrictions too soon?
[+]
 Asura.Saevel
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 9910
By Asura.Saevel 2020-04-29 08:00:33
And remember 2% of you have to die for the greater good of the economy!
Almost 7 Million Americans will die from this?
330000000 population
1000000 infected (0.3%)
55000 deaths (0.016%) so far
Looking at Oxford estimates it seems to fit:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
TL;DR (read it anyway, what else are you doing today?
"The current COVID outbreak seems to be following previous pandemics: initial CFRs start high and trend downwards. For example, In Wuhan, the CFR has gone down from 17% in the initial phase to near 1% in the late stage. It is increasingly clear that current testing strategies are not capturing everybody. In South Korea, considerable numbers who tested positive were also asymptomatics- likely driving the rapid worldwide spread.
CFR rates are subject to selection bias as more severe cases are tested – generally those in the hospital settings or those with more severe symptoms. The number of currently infected asymptomatics is uncertain: estimates put it at least a half are asymptomatic; the proportion not coming forward for testing is also highly doubtful (i.e. you are symptomatic, but you do not present for testing). Therefore we can assume the IFR is significantly lower than the CFR.
Emerging evidence suggests many more people are infected. than tested. In Vo Italy, at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, about 3%, had already been infected – most were completely asymptomatic.
We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.36%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease, the proportion asymptomatic (and the demographics of those affected) means this IFR is likely an overestimate.
In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies somewhere between 0.01% and 0.19%.
Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.36%.*"
Not that it isn't still serious, but fear sells news papers and generates clicks, like a positive feedback loop.
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As you said fear sells newspapers and elections, lets not forget we're in an election year and the side that controls the media wants things to look bad.
Back when this all first started I mentioned that this virus isn't very aggressive, just highly infectious. This means most people will beat the virus without even knowing they had it in the first place. Those that don't beat it quickly will have their bodies pick up the pace and that will cause the symptoms that have them seek medical aid and then they become a statistic.
So all the data we have now is based on the minority who's immune system didn't immediately fight off the infection. All those apocalyptic future projects are all insanely over-inflated and should be treated appropriately.
This is always the problem with public health. If you do nothing, and people get wiped out, it's "why didn't anyone warn us?!". And if you do something, and people are okay, it's "WHAT WAS THE BIG DEAL"??!?!?!"
Almost 7 Million Americans will die from this?
All of those original estimates were assuming we did nothing. We did something, so obviously those numbers will be wrong. The open questions are:
1) Did we do enough?
2) Could we have done more?
3) Are we loosening restrictions too soon?
Those estimates were hyper inflated to scare people and based purely on a "if X kills Y of known cased, then X * 100 must also kill Y * 100" which ignores how biology works. And lets not forget the WHO that cover for China and attempted to cover up the origins of COVID-19.
This is a virus not bacteria, you can't directly fight virus's. Best case scenario is you slow it's infection rate such that sufficient people become immune that it no longer can spread lightening fast. This is that "herd immunity" everyone was incorrectly understanding back with the forced vaccines threads. It doesn't need to be anywhere close to 100%, ~50% is sufficient to slow them down, ~70% to nearly stop them. It doesn't need to be vaccine immunity either, people will sufficiently strong immune systems will defeat the virus before it's had a chance to multiply. Since we can't tell who can and can't do that (viral load plays a huge part), we error on the side of caution and vaccinate everyone we can just in case.
Instead of people freaking out and buying six years worth of toilet paper, just don't be stupid, limit random contact with other humans, practice good hygiene and live life as best you can. Good pair of gloves goes a long way, the face mask helps limit viral load since the face is a huge infection vector. Yes that's what masks do, they don't give 100% protection from infection, just limit the amount of virus you might get at once making it easier for your body to squash it.
Cerberus.Hideka
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 742
By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-29 08:16:56
do you have any earthly idea of how much food the US produces
Why yes i actually do.
Do you know how quick that food will disappear once the farmers say "oh. your money cant buy me the things i need. im not selling you my produce. im going to just keep it for my self".
or once, ironically states start shutting down meatpacking plants by force?
Current estimations put our food supply on empty within two months of a full on economic collapse.
Asura.Saevel
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 9910
By Asura.Saevel 2020-04-29 08:24:02
do you have any earthly idea of how much food the US produces
Why yes i actually do.
Do you know how quick that food will disappear once the farmers say "oh. your money cant buy me the things i need. im not selling you my produce. im going to just keep it for my self".
or once, ironically states start shutting down meatpacking plants by force?
Current estimations put our food supply on empty within two months of a full on economic collapse.
Farmers can't eat their food directly, we haven't done that kind of farming in decades. Most farms mass produce a specific food type that is then sent to a processing plant to be made edible by the public at large. The farmers themselves only have limited capability to process their own raw crops into something they can eat and that is a faction of a percent of what they produce. Farmers need and want to send the raw material to a plant just to get it off their hands so it doesn't spoil in place.
The comment about the packing plants on the other hand is very real, stupid Democrats trying to close food processing facilities is insane. Stupid Democrats trying to force truckers to "stay home" and not deliver is also insane.
This chain needs protecting at all costs, without it we really do end in a nightmare Apocalypse scenario.
Farm => Processing Plant => Transportation => Store => Consumer.
Thankfully President Trump used emergency powers to prevent Democrats from shutting down the food supply.
[+]
Cerberus.Hideka
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 742
By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-29 08:27:21
This is always the problem with public health. If you do nothing, and people get wiped out, it's "why didn't anyone warn us?!". And if you do something, and people are okay, it's "WHAT WAS THE BIG DEAL"??!?!?!"
Almost 7 Million Americans will die from this?
All of those original estimates were assuming we did nothing. We did something, so obviously those numbers will be wrong. The open questions are:
1) Did we do enough?
2) Could we have done more?
3) Are we loosening restrictions too soon?
1. That estimation was based on faulty numbers. Furthermore its based on a virus that presents in only 50-75% of infections with symptoms. the remainder are invisible. it could be EVEN HIGHER. we wont know until we have widespread antibody blood testing.
2. the UK actually did nothing they are inline with the rest of the world on mortality rates. The added benefit of their strat, is like Sweden, they will achieve herd immunity MUCH faster- which will halt the further spread of it in their country.
3. Without herd immunity or a vacciene, opening up, will without fail cause a resurgance. its not a question of if were doing it too soon, because there is no end date.
TL/DR: economy is going to reopen. people are going to *** whine and complain. People are going to get sick again. trump will be blamed for making people get sick again - with all the pundits going "AHA I WAS RIGHT", despite states having the final say so on any lockdowns.
The fact of the matter is - it will never be time to lift the quarantine. We didnt take smart steps to help proliferate this virus efficiently. Yes. you read my statement correctly. We should have been helping this virus spread.
Explanation: Objectively speaking This virus is virtually no risk to anyone between the ages of 18 and 40, provided they arent immunocompromised or morbidly obese. These people Should have been encouraged to go out, and spread the virus among themselves, while the sick and the boomers sheltered in place away from it all. The fact of it is, only about 10~20% of the american population was EVER at risk for this. Calling for a 2% mortality rate was irresponsible and stupid given that.
Cerberus.Hideka
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 742
By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-29 08:32:22
do you have any earthly idea of how much food the US produces
Why yes i actually do.
Do you know how quick that food will disappear once the farmers say "oh. your money cant buy me the things i need. im not selling you my produce. im going to just keep it for my self".
or once, ironically states start shutting down meatpacking plants by force?
Current estimations put our food supply on empty within two months of a full on economic collapse.
Farmers can't eat their food directly, we haven't done that kind of farming in decades. Most farms mass produce a specific food type that is then sent to a processing plant to be made edible by the public at large. The farmers themselves only have limited capability to process their own raw crops into something they can eat and that is a faction of a percent of what they produce. Farmers need and want to send the raw material to a plant just to get it off their hands so it doesn't spoil in place.
The comment about the packing plants on the other hand is very real, stupid Democrats trying to close food processing facilities is insane. Stupid Democrats trying to force truckers to "stay home" and not deliver is also insane.
This chain needs protecting at all costs, without it we really do end in a nightmare Apocalypse scenario.
Farm => Processing Plant => Transportation => Store => Consumer.
Thankfully President Trump used emergency powers to prevent Democrats from shutting down the food supply.
to put this into perspective: i've lived on a farm half of my life, and we would do exactly this: We'd go to other farmers, trade seed for seed, or produce for livestock, and be absolutely fine. We would convert our farms into something that could produce our needs, and the needs of our direct family and friends, and tell everyone else to *** off if we were getting paid with monopoly money.
Asura.Saevel
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 9910
By Asura.Saevel 2020-04-29 09:09:20
do you have any earthly idea of how much food the US produces
Why yes i actually do.
Do you know how quick that food will disappear once the farmers say "oh. your money cant buy me the things i need. im not selling you my produce. im going to just keep it for my self".
or once, ironically states start shutting down meatpacking plants by force?
Current estimations put our food supply on empty within two months of a full on economic collapse.
Farmers can't eat their food directly, we haven't done that kind of farming in decades. Most farms mass produce a specific food type that is then sent to a processing plant to be made edible by the public at large. The farmers themselves only have limited capability to process their own raw crops into something they can eat and that is a faction of a percent of what they produce. Farmers need and want to send the raw material to a plant just to get it off their hands so it doesn't spoil in place.
The comment about the packing plants on the other hand is very real, stupid Democrats trying to close food processing facilities is insane. Stupid Democrats trying to force truckers to "stay home" and not deliver is also insane.
This chain needs protecting at all costs, without it we really do end in a nightmare Apocalypse scenario.
Farm => Processing Plant => Transportation => Store => Consumer.
Thankfully President Trump used emergency powers to prevent Democrats from shutting down the food supply.
to put this into perspective: i've lived on a farm half of my life, and we would do exactly this: We'd go to other farmers, trade seed for seed, or produce for livestock, and be absolutely fine. We would convert our farms into something that could produce our needs, and the needs of our direct family and friends, and tell everyone else to *** off if we were getting paid with monopoly money.
That's only for smaller family farms, the massive industrial farms, the kinda that produce most of the food supply, don't work that way. Kind of hard to find someone to "trade" a few tons of raw corn before it spoils, or a thousand pigs ready for slaughter before they die / decompose. What do they do with the ten thousand chickens ready to be turned into KFC?
Something like 60% of the US's pork supply comes from just five industrial farms. None of these industrial farms have the capacity to process their own raw produce, their sheer size an scope makes this impossible.
When we talk about food supply in the USA, we're not talking about small family run farms, we're talking about huge mega farms run by machine. Democrats may *** and moan but them, but when you need to feed not only the hundreds of millions in the USA, but also more millions across the world. The US is the worlds largest food exporter. With this as perspective, small family run farms are nice but ultimately unimportant in the grand scheme of things. They can horde all the food they want and it won't make a difference.
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-american-food-giant-the-largest-exporter-of-food-in-the-world.html
Asura.Saevel
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Posts: 9910
By Asura.Saevel 2020-04-29 09:25:45
Bah no edit button sucks as typos galore. When needing to feed that many people while also exporting across the world, massive industrial scale farming is the only way it's going to work. In the USA 97% of farms are small family owned farms, the remaining 3% are industrial farms owned by large corporations. That 3% produces nearly all the food in the US supermarkets. Farming on that scale lets them produce many times the amount of food per acre used while also leveraging economies of scale to reduce cost. It tends to push the smaller guys out who then have to market their produce as "local sourced" to various markets.
This is really easy to see here since we have a Wallmart, Weagmans, Harris Teeter, Trader Joes and Whole Foods within a few miles of where I live. There are more but those are the ones I visit the most. Wallmart is almost all packaged food from industrial farms, maybe a small section with "organic" labeled on it. Weagmans and Harris Teeter is a combination of both, still the same packaged meats and vegetables, but also large variety of locally sourced / organic produce. Trader Joes and Whole Foods are almost entirely locally sourced / organic farm stuff.
Me and the wife normally shop at Waegmans / HT or Super H-Mart (Korean supermarket) and use Trader Joe's as a quick "get these six things for tonight" place. We use the packaged meats for stuff like chicken breasts, pork chops or ground beef but use local / organic for stuff like steaks. Vegetables and Fruits are almost all local / organic as there is a huge selection. Eggs are the typical store brand so industrial, we use almond milk so no idea where that's coming from.
Cerberus.Hideka
Server: Cerberus
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Posts: 742
By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-29 09:32:10
I shouldnt need to point out that you're operating under the illusion that people will continue to work those industrial farms when being paid with monopoly money. I wouldnt ever consider those to be 'farmers' in the traditional sense.
[+]
Asura.Saevel
Server: Asura
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Posts: 9910
By Asura.Saevel 2020-04-29 10:51:36
I shouldnt need to point out that you're operating under the illusion that people will continue to work those industrial farms when being paid with monopoly money. I wouldnt ever consider those to be 'farmers' in the traditional sense.
That's called moving the goal posts. This was your post and assertion.
do you have any earthly idea of how much food the US produces
Why yes i actually do.
Do you know how quick that food will disappear once the farmers say "oh. your money cant buy me the things i need. im not selling you my produce. im going to just keep it for my self".
or once, ironically states start shutting down meatpacking plants by force?
Current estimations put our food supply on empty within two months of a full on economic collapse.
As long as Dem's are kept far away from the levers of government our food supply won't be threatened. Economical we are very solid, the pandemic was a one time disaster scenario like a hurricane, earthquake or wildfire, just on a larger scale. The economic situation in the USA was self inflicted, we did this to ourselves by shutting down our economy by force. The printing of money, which is what the stimulus is, is a short term effort to keep the country running until we restart the economy. Most fiscal hawks agree that this is a necessary evil as the alternative, complete economic collapse, would be far worse. Once we restart the economy the money faucet gets turned off.
Sorry your imaginative Mad Max Apocalypse isn't going to happen.
Cerberus.Hideka
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 742
By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-29 11:19:16
I shouldnt need to point out that you're operating under the illusion that people will continue to work those industrial farms when being paid with monopoly money. I wouldnt ever consider those to be 'farmers' in the traditional sense.
That's called moving the goal posts. This was your post and assertion.
No, its certianly not. moving the goalposts would be if i created a scenario that existed outside of the meets and bounds of the original argument. the original argument was plainly at its core "without value, money is worthless, and if money is worthless, nobody is going to produce anything for money".
you cant just cry 'goalposts' because i pointed out the gaping flaw in your argument. Pointing out that you initially changed the contents of the initial argument from talking about localized farmers (to which i specifically referenced), to talking about industrial farming complexes (that will shut down over night if they arent paid, is not shifting the goalposts).
the fact of the matter is, if we go monopoly money status the only ones still producing food will be your smaller farmers - hence the initial argument i leveraged about smaller farmers.
do you have any earthly idea of how much food the US produces
Why yes i actually do.
Do you know how quick that food will disappear once the farmers say "oh. your money cant buy me the things i need. im not selling you my produce. im going to just keep it for my self".
or once, ironically states start shutting down meatpacking plants by force?
Current estimations put our food supply on empty within two months of a full on economic collapse.
As long as Dem's are kept far away from the levers of government our food supply won't be threatened. Economical we are very solid, the pandemic was a one time disaster scenario like a hurricane, earthquake or wildfire, just on a larger scale. The economic situation in the USA was self inflicted, we did this to ourselves by shutting down our economy by force. The printing of money, which is what the stimulus is, is a short term effort to keep the country running until we restart the economy. Most fiscal hawks agree that this is a necessary evil as the alternative, complete economic collapse, would be far worse. Once we restart the economy the money faucet gets turned off.
Sorry your imaginative Mad Max Apocalypse isn't going to happen.[/quote]
well, for madmax, we'd neeed a full on desertification of the world. were not quite there yet. give global warming a few years (at least according to the lib types).
i think that you think were disagreeing, but we arent. my point was specifically about the forced collapse of the economy, and how quickly we will not have food available. yours is about the application of political force to keep idiots from breaking the machine thats already hobbling along.
Garuda.Chanti
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Posts: 11402
By Garuda.Chanti 2020-05-04 19:41:15
COVID-19 HHS / FEMA interagency VTC
CDC situation update
Published as a .pdf by the NY Times (I think.)
Scroll down to the data and analytics task force. WARNING Will Robinson!!! This section's graphs are all marked for official use only.
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1
By Voren 2020-05-20 04:44:54
Asura.Eiryl
By Asura.Eiryl 2020-05-20 04:47:23
Yo this cat lost his whole damn body. 6 weeks bed rest is the real deal
[+]
By Voren 2020-05-20 04:54:37
Yo this cat lost his whole damn body. 6 weeks bed rest is the real deal
If it's putting him down that hard I'm up Schitt's Creek. At least if I survive I'll have lost an amazing amount of weight. Covid-19 could be better than Jenny Crank.
Asura.Eiryl
By Asura.Eiryl 2020-05-20 05:01:36
It's (seemingly) totally random who and how bad. 6 weeks is on the extreme spectrum and dudes young and healthy, just got boned by RNG.
For what it's worth anyone can do it... just... don't eat. hydrate vitamins ((and a shitload of willpower)) Was a story about some guy that lost like 200 lbs doing that a few years back.
[+]
By Voren 2020-05-20 05:18:46
My willpower is somewhere between nil and none. I'm really close to beating having diabetes, other issues are not as easy I'm afraid.
I was looking forward to Planet Fitness, and then I saw their reduced hours and they're not conducive to my current shift, so that kinda screws a bit, but I still need to get off my dead *** and do something, maybe yoga or walk.
Just seeing people who, by appearances anyways, are healthy getting hit hard makes me a bit concerned is all.
Garuda.Chanti
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By Garuda.Chanti 2020-05-20 09:34:15
My willpower is somewhere between nil and none. I'm really close to beating having diabetes, other issues are not as easy I'm afraid.
I was looking forward to Planet Fitness, and then I saw their reduced hours and they're not conducive to my current shift, so that kinda screws a bit, but I still need to get off my dead *** and do something, maybe yoga or walk.... Get a dog. Walk it regularly. Like 3 - 4 times a day.
Not only will you get exercise, you will have a wonderful canine friend.
[+]
By Voren 2020-05-20 09:39:48
My willpower is somewhere between nil and none. I'm really close to beating having diabetes, other issues are not as easy I'm afraid.
I was looking forward to Planet Fitness, and then I saw their reduced hours and they're not conducive to my current shift, so that kinda screws a bit, but I still need to get off my dead *** and do something, maybe yoga or walk.... Get a dog. Walk it regularly. Like 3 - 4 times a day.
Not only will you get exercise, you will have a wonderful canine friend.
Would love to, but our cat would kill it. We took in my mom's dog for 18hours, that was horrible and never again. Our cat is an ***.
But thanks for the suggestion ^^. I just need to motivate myself to get off the couch, was easier having some place specific to go to.
Valefor.Endoq
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By Valefor.Endoq 2020-06-04 19:09:25
By Eboneezer 2020-06-04 21:43:21
Ragnarok.Ozment
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By Ragnarok.Ozment 2020-06-04 21:51:56
As if Trump couldn't dig himself a hole any deeper for November.
By Eboneezer 2020-06-04 21:56:11
As if Trump couldn't dig himself a hole any deeper for November.
If that's what you got after reading the article, you're going to have to show your work on that conclusion
Ragnarok.Ozment
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By Ragnarok.Ozment 2020-06-04 22:09:21
As if Trump couldn't dig himself a hole any deeper for November.
If that's what you got after reading the article, you're going to have to show your work on that conclusion
I don't have to do ???. Your idiotic links are worthless.
By Viciouss 2020-06-04 22:09:23
Lets check and see who still has a chance at getting on stage for this thread!
OP - 18k He is out.
I would say 75,000 Americans by the end of the year.
I'm currently on the stage!
I'd say 50k outside of the tristate area with a good 200k within.
Still in!
I'm going with 200k with Trump at the helm. If we had an actual politician that understood world affairs and how to handle something of this magnitude, probably 50k-100k would have been more accurate.
Still in!
Unlimited Breadsticks said: »250k by the end of the year.
In!
I'd love to be proven wrong on any of this! But yeah, I'm sticking by 250k.
I'm going with 269K.
(nice)
In!
Whatever the official number winds up at the actual death rate will be higher.
Several reasons, the biggest one for us is lack of testing, in other countries its under reporting or deliberate mislabeling like the Russian spike in pneumonia deaths.
I'm going to say 180K official for the USA, 240 real count. I hope I am not among them nor are any of you.
In, and closest to eliminating me.
A lot of people are still eligible to get on the Price is Right stage. Right now tho, I'm on the stage, cuz everyone else is over.
Ragnarok.Ozment
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By Ragnarok.Ozment 2020-06-04 22:31:14
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By Shiva.Zerowone 2020-06-04 22:31:53
Well if you google pneumonia deaths 2020 it kind of changes the whole game. 2x the normal yearly average and we're only half way through the year.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Going to go with a 250k.
500k if you factor in the abnormally high amount of pneumonia deaths as potentially being misreported to keep Covid-19 death numbers down.
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