Dev Tracker - Discussion

In addition to what Nynja said, I can go farm dyna with a reasonable expectation that in a few runs, I'd get what I was after.

You can't go into Sortie and expect that you'll reasonably get the +2 earring you are after. You could spend a year doing it nightly and never see it.

Do I have to quote myself saying the things I said again or how do we address the fact that I'm not talking about frequency?

The systems in this game have, since the dawn of time, been random and not allowed you to target specific things or ask the game for the exact item you want. There are like...3 exceptions to this (Nyzul weapons, I guess?).

In my first post I was referring to GROUPS getting 2 of the same earring (and also this guy). Do you think every time these groups have 2 earrings drop on the same day or in the same week and they AREN'T the same earring, they go "Wow, look how fair and properly random the RNG of the earrings is"? Funny how the one time in 2 years this happens, they notice it. That was my point. You will notice that on the same page as my post there are several people pointing out that one time in 2 years they had a coincidental double/triple earring drop. Do you believe this person saved a screenshot every time they and their friends opened distinct earrings? Drop this in a high school statistics class, it's a great example of how humans are extremely bad at fairly observing randomness and their ridiculous anecdotes shouldn't be taken seriously.

Aside from the fact that I'm talking about the type of the system and not the drop rates...

Oh, that's interesting. Tell me about the times in 2004 that you popped into Dynamis - Xarcabard to quickly farm a RDM hat in a few runs. I had a pretty different experience with farming relic armor than you did.

Pretty ***example tbh, the NMs in Xarc dropped their specific jobs piece.

You could kill http://ffxidb.com/zones/135/duke-berith specifically for a rdm hat

This, I had a trio that would split the cost of lamp and go knock out all the desirable jobs by having one person sac pulling the NM on THF and the other 2 duoing with RDMs. We got everything we wanted in a month or two.

The random design in the old days made sense because you were expected to have a wide variety of players playing a wide variety of jobs. Random rewards on player-specific loot feels much more like an intentional effort to encourage job diversity.

Edit: I do not think there's intentional bias in the earring distribution system, at most the spread is based on job popularity or desired job popularity or something rather than a flat 1/22 chance. There's absolutely no reason to believe it is preferring duplicates of bad earrings or biased based on what you personally play.

Getting deep fried by Eiryl
Oof
Would never be me

Oh great, one chance every 4 days and you need to bring a group of people who hopefully also don't want that thing, because only a single piece drops and everyone doesn't get one. Hope you also have millions of gil to go...fortunately there were lots of ways to make easy millions back then...

You're also locking yourself out of one of the twice-a-week events, so you miss out on whatever you would've gotten with your group, etc. etc.

But yeah sure it was super simple to farm THF hands, that's why everyone had them back then and they weren't rare or sought-after.

I do not know a single person who ever did this (or they didn't tell me about it) because most people were too busy trying to figure out how to scrape together 300k so they could afford Utsusemi: Ni and HOPE to still be able to afford Shihei after that.

I mean there was already reasonably solid evidence showing the base jobs had significantly higher drop rates.

Which means it is skewed on purpose. Which means it's not entirely unreasonable to assume further skewing.

If you never got them it's because you were 65th in line and only did xarc every other month.

Everyone was dumb as *** then (still are!), did everything suboptimally.

I apologize, the latter comment ignores the context that I was out of the game for a very long time. I did not intend to mislead

I had done at least dozens of sortie runs prior (got 7 sets at +3 5/5), so the long break in between +2s was not due to grinding, but not doing it. I actually meant to say: "I have only gotten 3 +2s, one after dozens of runs, and the other 2 literally 10 runs apart".

I got 2 chapeaus, a pair of armlets, and a petasos that way personally, and well over a dozen pieces for people I brought with me. The issue wasn't finding people willing to pay or the droprates, when content like that is perceived as for 18+ only, the people who aren't in huge shells are glad for an opportunity. In terms of number of runs to get a piece, it is far and away superior to 'working your way up' in a linkshell with 25 people when 15 of them want a chapeau and the other 10 want armlets.

Pre-Aby, people werent playing 10 jobs. They had two main jobs, maybe 3.

Inventory was capped to 50 or 60 (im hazy on what expansion took place when), I know case didnt exist, sack and satchel Im hazy on as well. There wasnt room to properly play 6++++ jobs.

Edit:
Satchel April 2009, with MFA token.
Sack Nov 2010.

Based on gobbiebag page edits, inventory at that time was 70, with 80 cap added april 2009.


Yes, we collected the unlotted relic that falls to us. We dumped it in storage until we could get the set and dump it to the npc that gave us the slip key item. Storage slips didnt exist either back then.

No apologies necessary, it just wasn't obvious whether it was a drought or a streak without that little bit of context to frame it.

I only do a handful of runs weekly because I can't maintain static schedule. A curse and a blessing though. Gonna take years to finish the last dozen pieces of armor and a prime, but there's no danger of burning out.

I think the bias in the earring job distribution favors the original six jobs, at least for the NQ drops. Also, SE hates DRK.

Also, the augment tier is heavily skewed towards garbage augments lol

There was a JP post that was discussed somewhere over these boards, showing a distribution that greatly favoured the 6 basic jobs over the other ones.
All had the same % rate, within margin of error, but the 6 basic job had a noticeably higher rate.
Sample was meaningful.

In my small experience with +1 cases, I noticed the same thing. Obviously my sample is much lower and hence the error margin is larger, but aside a few strange number here and there I can confirm my numbers were in line with the above finding.

Can't find the original discussion/post alas.

Not sure if this is what you:re referencing but I made the post in JPN based on the data that was provided here on ffxiah. Original post received 59 likes but never received any reply. Bumped a few times with nothing. Have bumped it again now.

https://forum.square-enix.com/ffxi/threads/59817-2022%E5%B9%B48%E6%9C%8816%E6%97%A5%E3%80%80%E5%B0%8E%E5%85%A5%E3%80%80%E3%82%BD%E3%83%BC%E3%83%86%E3%82%A3%E3%81%AB%E3%81%A4%E3%81%84%E3%81%A6/page62

This is the thread with where the testing started, and where Manque referenced his JP post: https://www.ffxiah.com/forum/topic/57353/sortie-2-earrings-do-not-exist/4/

In that same thread, the data pool used for the NQ earring job distribution graph was provided by Izanami, which he obtained from Andromida. The sample size was: Old Box 15489 NQ 14524 HQ 965. The jobs for the 14524 NQ earrings were what were used to create the graph. The +1 earring % chance of obtaining from an old box calculated to about ~5% from that data as well (one page prior, https://www.ffxiah.com/forum/topic/57353/sortie-2-earrings-do-not-exist/3/ )

Theres probably some mildly interesting history in that AMAN chat from yesterday in the second half.

Nothing of substance but just history. Skipped through it at double speed. Something about 60 cap maybe unused missions/assets. Some knight I don't recognize.

what chat

https://www.youtube.com/live/_342h5DIfi8

Been gone about 5 years. Can someone up to speed me on anything significant?

I had a feeling this would be the response. Will probably just hang out a bit in game, just for the nostalgia.

They added a lot of things in the past 5 years, Odyssey, new armors from it, new weapons, Sortie, master levels, new REMA prime weapons and a new storyline.

So newer and higher levels of difficulty? Any more of the content soloable at todays power levels?

Games great to get back into. If you ever wanted to gear a job and be strong there is a ton of content you can do that on with a lot of mid-level gear to play with.

only starts to slog when you reach the top (prime weapons/V20+)then it slows to a crawl.

I have fairly up to date gear with how game was 5 years ago. How's the ingame economy in general?