June 2024 Version Update

The whole point of press your luck is that one risks the reward they have for greater reward. You essentially leave the moment you have anything to risk, so I'd offer that you're not even playing the game.


For that reason, I'll go ahead and strike that last comment for you. Come back when you have more experience.

Yeah, because the average number of LT boxes in a Mars Orb is literally one, 1, uno. Yes, very rarely there are two, even more rarely a third, but I've also had my very fair share of 0/8 on LT and had the last box go gold, which means 0 LT's. I've had more 0/8+ gold orbs than I've received the belligerent bang after popping a LT. Obviously the sample size for both scenario's is rather low.

I'm not risking my reward for the very minor chance theres another LT box waiting. The whole point of playing double or nothing is that your odds havent changed. However, in this case, your odds have changed. Not only is the chance of catching the mimic higher, but the chance you're gonna get a LT box from what is left is significantly lower.

If I hit something big at the casino, I dont put all my money back on the table / in the machine. I *** cash out. What kind of idiot hits big then gives it all back?

It's a gambling game. I actually don't even think it's possible to define the word 'gambling' without using some synonym of the word risk. I get that not everyone has that itch, but everyone should understand it at this point.



The difference between a good reward and the potential for a good reward.

A loud thud is simply potential. SE shrunk this potential when they flooded the loot pool. It's less valuable than it was and it wasn't really worth protecting back before they bombed it.


What are the actual odds? 10 chests, one of them a mimic... what are the odds that you open 8 before you get sent D3? Seems favorable to me.

Maybe im mistaken but LT is the pool that holds the omen bodies/ou stuff, malig gear, sroda stuff, pulse weapons/bodies, shinryu stuff. Past that theres a large pool of undesireables but if you're selling any of these via shouts/yells, even a crappy pulse body can net you atleast a few mil, even some of the escha helm junk might get some value.

While noise/regular thud dont have any of the above, if theres typically only 1 LT in a mars pool, i dont see why you would waste that potential 2~mil shout for either more junk,getting thwaked or maybe that elusive 2nd LT, sure theres potential in continuing on, but odds get increasingly unfavorable the more you open.

Last box is around 75% rainbow. So, if you get a LT on #7, you have:

-2/3 chance of getting box 8+9 (unless you choose the wrong box on 7, you get both)

-2/3 * 3/4 = 50% chance of getting an additional loud thud from box 9

-a small chance of loud thud from box 8, thud from box 9 2/3 of the time

If you only care about loud thuds, and you get a loud thud on box 7, it's worth it to open box 8 because you have a greater chance of getting a second loud thud than losing the loud thud you have, if slightly.

If you care at all about thuds/noises, it's a lot more complicated to model.

If you get a loud thud before box 7, and you primarily care about loud thuds, you should leave.

I think it's clear that the good items aren't "locked" behind LT. I know plenty of people who've gotten omen bodies, osash, etc. with 0 loud thuds so it's definitely not a requirement. It could be that a LT guarantees some kind of "good" drop, but obviously we've all seen pools where it's extremely difficult to figure out what the "good" drop is.

That said, I've popped enough thud/noise only coffers to realize that by-and-large you're getting absolute trash a large percentage of the time and it's not worth bailing early, IMO.

I think the key is you need to develop a "strategy" and stick to it every single time, so that you aren't sitting there trying to come up with a decision on the fly. That's how I roll anyway. I open the chests in the same order every single time and I go until I get a LT or the 9th chest. If I get a LT and there's a BB, I will generally bail unless it's super late (like 7th chest, there's still a BB).

I'm glad they added BB & the 9th chest stuff, at least it allows you to be somewhat strategic as opposed to just straight luck with no decision making.

Can you provide a screenshot of this happening after the major trove patch added sound messages to the final crate? I'm sure I have the highest sample size here, and my experience has been that noise, thud, and loud thud each pull from their own pool. Prior to the major trove update, the last chest did not produce any message, but could still be any of them, so back then you could have gotten a loud thud from the final chest without realizing.

The horseshoe-wielding person in question hasn't been around for a while, I could try digging through Discord to see if they ever sent any screenshots but knowing them I think it was likely only ever in linkshell chat and not a Discord message...

The occurrences I'm thinking of would've happened a bit ago so maybe it was before the patch I'm not sure. At least once maybe multiple times it was from running straight to the terminal coffer. Hard to remember since these were definitely a while ago. You could be right, I'm definitely going on memory and not my data for this observation.

I don't open without a LT but I looked at my gold 9th chests and they have been all trash (except 5m) so...maybe?

Is that based on getting going for all 9 boxes regardless of LT's obtained prior?

What about the chance of getting a loud thud from the terminal coffer?

(9 / 10) * (8 / 9) * (7 / 8) * (6 / 7) * (5 / 6) * (4 / 5) * (3 / 4) * (2 / 3) = 0.2

20% chance. The odds are 4:1 against.

This is on the premise you've already opened 8 boxes and not lost, the final chest will turn rainbow around 75% and gold around 25%. It is nothing to do with the odds of going 9/9, only the very specific circumstance of getting a loud thud on your 7th box. Any other time, I would(and do) immediately leave after getting a loud thud.

You have a 2/3 chance of keeping it vs a 1/3 chance of losing it. If you only care about loud thuds, and you have 7 boxes open with 1 loud thud:

2/3 chance of success. This gives you +1 random box, +1 9th box. This can be further broken down into:
>2/3 chance of succeeding on #8
>>75% chance of loud thud
>>>50% overall odds of +1 loud thud, +1 random box(#8)
>>25% chance of thud on 9th box
>>>16.6667% chance of +1 thud(worthless)< +1 random box(#8)
>1/3 chance of failing on #8
>>>33.3333% chance of -1 loud thud(existing), -1 random box(terminal)

So, you have a net gain in the amount of loud thuds by opening box 8. Your expected loud thuds are higher by 1/3 the value of a normal chest, plus double loud thuds are fun.

If you value noises or thuds at all(noises have a minimal amount of gil value but it's not zero, thuds are *all* garbage gear in my experience), this proposition changes.

If i cracked 5 orbs, opened 25+ boxes with no LT, if i catch a LT in that last orb on any chest lower than 8 where my success rate becomes 100% for that run (barring being an idiot), im running with that one LT.

I can assure you, ill have bigger regrets knowing I lost out on a LT because I got greedy over the thought of “what if there was another LT out there”. Not once have I bailed on a single LT going “damn maybe there was another”, but ive had a few instances of mashing enter where I cracked a LT, didnt notice then cracked a mimic in my rush, and i felt dumb for it. Also the sigh of relief when I do that mistake and its not a mimic.

What percentage of the LT loot pool is the good ***? 25%? 10%? 5%
Lets say its 25%, but that feels generous.

If my math is wrong, please correct me.

You pop LT on box 7. Theres a 33% chance your next box is a mimic, 66% chance youll claim that loot and 75% chance youll get a second LT.
If theres a 25% chance that LT is the good ***, then chasing a second one means you have a 50% chance of getting the good ***. Except it doesnt work that way, and you actually have a 31.25% (i probably have this number wrong tbh) chance of getting something good from your two LTs.

At this point the statistics go beyond my mathematical skillset, but now youre weighing the guaranteed attempt at that 25% of a good item, or the 66% chance of upgrading to a 31.25% chance of a good item and a 33% chance of losing it all.

If that 25% is generous, then that number drastic goes down.

The numbers dont lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sakerfice.


Ok jokes aside at the end, is any of that incorrect, beyond the speculation of what the percentage of good loot within LT is?

i'd be interested in data on quality of drops from LT, BBLT, Rainbow LT (preloaded), and chest 9 Rainbow LT.

sadly I never kept track well enough to see any difference, if there is one.

I have never seen anything of value without a Loud Thud before but I do have a clip of getting 2x Footshard: PUP from a LT and a T. . . so not sure how that happened.

https://clips.twitch.tv/ElatedNastyCheeseNerfBlueBlaster-x9MGnaQHjg3O992m

2 loud thuds isn't quite double the chance of getting a good item, but it introduces the chance of getting two good items, so the value remains equal. If you have 2 loud thuds, and a good item is 25%, you have:
6.25% chance of two items
37.5% chance of a single good item
43.75% chance of at least one good item
56.25% chance of no good item
Your chance of two items is still putting you at double the expected value of a single loud thud (6.25x2 + 37.5 = 50), so the term you're isolating for here is irrelevant.

If you only care about loud thuds, you have a greater chance of getting a double loud thud from opening #8 than you do of losing your existing loud thud. You also gain a small chance of a triple loud thud(if #8 itself is a loud thud, you still get #9).
I don't know what you're doing with probabilities, I already outlined them in my last post:
>>>50% overall odds of +1 loud thud, +1 random box(#8)
>>>16.6667% chance of +1 thud(worthless), +1 random box(#8)
>>>33.3333% chance of -1 loud thud(existing), -1 random

The math is not that complicated. If you only care about loud thuds, it is worth opening box 8 when 7 is a loud thud. If you personally hate the idea of losing a loud thud, that's your choice, but the math doesn't support it and the idea of opening a double loud thud is pretty nice too.

That is definitely enough to raise questions. I guess the question would have to be: Is there a chance of a Thud upgrading to a Loud Thud on loot distribution, or are some items crossover between Thud and Loud Thud[shards specifically]?

How is it irrelevant?
most people aren’t cracking LTs for shards or escha loot, the goal is the rare/ex loot that has absurdly low drop rates (crepu, omen bodies, tartartus, etc). You absolutely have to factor that in to the risk/reward formula considering how diluted the LT loot pool got diluted with junk.

I have 631 entries on a spreadsheet taking in my AMAN data since the update and I recorded 3x other instances of a regular shard on a LT, so it's possible there is some crossover. . . but I've never seen anything on a Thud producing anything that is thought to be LT only.

I'm not trying to be condescending, but you're clearly just not understanding how probability works. It doesn't matter what you want out of the loud thuds, you will average more loud thud rolls by opening that 8th box. That means you'll get more chances at whatever item you want. Each roll is independant, so unless you only ever want one more specialty item then the value of 2 rolls is exactly twice the value of one roll.

Edit:
For example, let's say you take a sample of 100 runs, given you're at box #7 with a loud thud.

If you just exit, you get:
100 loud thuds
100 random rolls [final box]
If you assume loud thud to be 9% on a regular box, then you walk away with 109 total loud thud rolls.

If you open box #8, you get:
66.667 loud thuds (initial)
66.667 random rolls [final box]
16.667 extra thuds from #9 (can call these worthless since we're discounting noises/thuds)
50 loud thuds from #9
66.667 random rolls [#8]
The random rolls work out to 12 loud thuds (133.3 * .09), then you add it all up for 128.667 total loud thud rolls.

In the second example, you get 18% more loud thud rolls. The only way your idea of risk/reward makes sense is if you consider each orb to be your last orb ever. If your life will be complete by getting 1 super rare piece of gear, but you don't ever want another after that, then you would have to change the calculation around[I suspect opening #8 would still win, but by less]. The less pieces you want, the less it matters.

I get how probability works, even though I had the numbers wrong before. Youre the one who seems to be ignoring the quality of loot.

Each LT has an undetermined chance to be a desired item, i threw out 25%, but its an eyeballed number. If you hit LT on 7, you can:
A-walk out with a 25% (once again, made up rough eyeballed number) chance of something good.
B-go for another, here are your options and odds as of that moment:
B1-you have a 33% chance of having zero loot, 0% chance of getting a desired item.
B2-you have a 50.25% of getting a second LT, 37.25% chance of getting a desired item.
B3-you have a 16.75% chance of leaving with no extra LT, 25% chance of getting a desired item.

B2 and B3 probabilities change after you open box 8 of course.

All of those desired item percentages are based on a very uneducated eyeball guess of 25%. Perhaps someone whos documented their loot can provide a better estimate of worthwhile loot from LT. Desired loot is also subjective, but i think generally most can agree that selbina/wyrmgod HTMB, omen bodies, tartarus, pulse fall under the desired loot.

Yes it does.

The made up number of 25% chance of good loot becomes a 37.25% chance to get single piece of good loot if you catch a second LT.

But that made up number is 25%. What if its 20%? The probability of getting a good piece of gear with two LTs opened is 32% (I figured this formula out), which is now lower than the probability of catching a mimic on box 8 (33%).

No, it becomes 43.75%. 37.25% is isolating for exactly one piece of good loot. 43.75% is one or more.

I cannot explain this any clearer, if you are unable to comprehend it please reread my last post. Regardless of what % you ascribe to good loot, the missing [6.25% in this case] is represented as a chance to receive 2 pieces of good loot at once.

These are all made up numbers since no one has an idea if what the rate of good LT loot is.

And yes, i didnt properly read the three
Probability of A and B both occuring: P(A∩B) 0.0625
Probability that A or B or both occur: P(A∪B) 0.4375
Probability that A or B occurs but NOT both: P(AΔB) 0.375

It does not matter what the rate of 'good LT loot' is or what you consider 'good LT loot'. If you only care about drops from LT, you will get proportionally more of them by getting more LTs. If you open box #8, you will get more LTs. This is true for absolutely any rate of good loot or assessment of good loot.

with a 25% chance of good loot..
128.667 loud thud rolls = 32.16675 good items
109 loud thud rolls = 27.25 good items

with a 10% chance of good loot..
128.667 loud thud rolls = 12.8667 good items
109 loud thud rolls = 10.9 good items

The only way this matters is if you are assessing it as if this is your last run ever. Otherwise, it balances over time.

Hold up, theres possibly missing information:
I asked if there were LTs hit prior, and you gave the full 75/25. How does that upgrade to rainbow chest ratio look when there was a LT hit prior to those 8 boxes?

The last box changing is an independant event as far as we know, and in dozens of instances of this I've seen roughly 75/25 split with no indication that a prior loud thud changes it.

Do you have any data to indicate otherwise? One would assume not, since it seems you don't open any past a loud thud. On the other hand, I do around 200 runs a month with an automated script that opens according to preset logic.

If the upgrade to rainbow on box 9 is weighted based on the # of LTs already present, then the upgrade rate changes and those 100 boxes is no longer

You have data to support 75/25 but dont have data showing upgrade rate with LTs present?

No i dont have that data. I told you, i bail on LT. I dont run exploits so I can do hundreds of orbs back to back for free.