Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA

How about 3/4 of an inadequate statistical sample?

It would be that hard Rav, headlines should fit on a bumper sticker.

But seriously, even cases with mild symptoms can leave the patient scared for life in so many organs. Most of the damaged patients in that study weren't hospitalized.

I would not be surprised if recovered asymptotic cases will be found by internal damage years later.

I expect research papers in the next 3+ years on reduced lifespans among survivors.

Paged!

Exactly.


Accuracy should be valued higher than length.

Well it happened a little quicker than I thought, but Texas officially blew by New York in total cases today, with a high death count at 300+ as well. August is going to be terrible.

https://lawandcrime.com/covid-19-pandemic/flood-of-gop-congressional-staffers-say-theyre-being-forced-to-work-on-capitol-hill-without-masks-report/

Herman Cain just died from covid, he had been in the hospital for a month.

Bet he regreted going to that convention. If only someone had known there was a deadly pandemic going around.

The Marlins just had another player test positive today, 17 total guys now. I don't see how they are gonna be able to play again this year.

Real talk, how many players are on the roster?

Let them all get it. Keep them isolated from other people (room service etc) turn their entire floor into a field hospital with staff.

Then they can play any game they want, no more testing, everything is A-ok.

Last page the "plague party" idea was more sarcastic, but if half(?) already have it... it may be the real answer.

Isn't it shown that after you recover from it, you don't spread it anymore?

If so, wouldn't they just come back towards September? Still sucks and everything though.

30 players are allowed on the major league roster this year. In the case of the Marlins, only about 10 of their guys would compete, not necessarily win, a roster spot on other ballclubs. The commissioner has said if a team was so infected that they couldn't even field a competitive team, they would have to "reevaluate." That doesn't look to be happening with the Marlins because they were never competitive to begin with.

Recovery time differs for every individual. The Cubs had a pitching coach that battled it for 28 days. The Nats have a player that looks to be recovered a week after testing positive. You can't really base a plan on resuming play with such unpredictability.

Ok, I did not know that.

Recent studies are showing its very possible to be infected even after you have gone thru active disease symptoms/positive test. That the antibodies produced aren't effective in stopping future infection.

This isn't chicken pox, you can't have a sleepover and get all your kids infected, and just be done with it. Not to mention long-term heart and lung issues that seem to linger for MONTHS and could be permanent damage (think scar tissue).

If I were making my living through physical activity and my window to earn money was limited by age/injury, no way I'm risking the productivity of my heart and lungs for something that's 1/3 of a real season. Fine me all ya want- I'll be back next year fully healthy.

one of my close friends got covid about 100+ days ago. His lungs have some scaring but doctors said it looks like he's healing. In addition to that he also recently has like a hot flash but instead its multiple symptoms hitting him in like a 2hour timespan. He has some trouble breathing or gets winded pretty easily. He did a fair bit before being sick tho so that may have exasperated his condition. Doctors said he isn't contagious atm ~ def doesn't sound like a fun thing to have

More baseball news, the Miami Marlins first opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies, just had two staffers test positive for covid. They have cancelled all activities at the ballpark, so far no players have tested positive.

Best wishes to your friend. I'm really hoping this is just a long healing process and not irreversible damage. I had a non-symptomatic positive result in April (I was hospitalized for a seizure literally the day the NBA cancelled its season to give you a timeframe) and was exposed while in there before most of the now "normal" precautions were implemented. Even today I can feel how my endurance is less than it was last summer when I go hiking- and I had NOTHING like those who have dealt with the full-blown symptoms,etc.

The science is far from settled on the susceptibility of individuals to be reinfected. Yes, there are various instances of it happening, but some people also get chicken pox multiple times. There’s no need to be a doomsayer based on limited data.

agree- and not trying to be a doomsayer...merely saying I dont' feel that baseball is necessary, and the risk isn't justified.

These are all reasons why herd immunity is not being pursued. There isn't enough information to ensure its even viable, and we see the damage it does to people of all ages. The first step is having a real, scientifically accepted cure.

meant to said he was a smoker, but i got lost in my thought for a second. and thank you <3 Hope you get better too.

That's not how the immune system works and this is a really good example of good information being filtered through ignorant people.

No anti-body has ever "stopped" a viral infection, it would defy the laws of physics. Virus's start outside your body, antibodies live inside our bodies, it's not possible for them rush out and fight off a virus before it infects you.

https://www.genome.gov/genetics-glossary/Antibody

Antibodies are special cells that help identify foreign invaders and assist in removing them from the body.

The part of our immune system we're discussing is a reactive component, you get infected, your body identifies the invader, it develops antibodies, it then fights off the invasion, antibodies hang around in case of future invasion. Now if you get infected again, because your body already has antibodies it can rapidly engage and fight off the virus before it's had a chance to infect very many cells.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_load

Now here is something lots of people don't understand because video games. When your infected you aren't immediately infectious because the viral load is pretty small. Viral load is how many active infected cells you have in a given volume of blood. Basically how "infected" someone is. A high viral load means they are losing the fight and super infectious, a low viral load means they are winning and aren't very infectious, a very low viral load means they have won the fight and aren't infectious.

So initial infection -> very low viral load -> not infectious.
Now the virus starts spreading and it's a race between how much the virus can spread vs how fast the body can identify and destroy it. If the virus is quick enough it can infect enough cells to be capable of transmission to another host, if the body is faster then it gets defeated before transmission and is known as an "asymptomatic infection". Yes you were infected, no you didn't have symptoms nor were you really infectious. Note on that really part, it's not a binary thing and the required viral load varies between person and virus. That is why medical professionals will say "maybe infectious".

Now lets say the virus is faster then the body and has now achieved sufficient numbers to be infectious. Since the body is late to game it responds by raiding metabolism and really cranking up the immune system to fight off the invader. This creates what we call "flu like symptoms". The symptoms we get from viral infections are the collateral damage of war being fought between the virus and our immune system. The body can't "uninfect" a cell, instead it just renders the entire infected cell inert and disposes of it later. If cells in the lungs were being infected, then the body will destroy those lung cells to remove the infection. The more cells are infected the more cells the body destroys, long term viral infections can be disastrous to someone's health.

Finally through all the tactics and destroyed cells the body finally conquers the virus. By shear brute force the body has decimated the virus along with the infected cells. The body doesn't want to go through this again and that's where those anti-bodies come in handy. Antibodies will hang around in the blood for years after an infection. Their sole purpose now is early warning, if you get infected again the anti-bodies will detect the infection early and the body will react and destroy the infection before it becomes communicable.

That's a quick class on the basics of how viral infections work. Should be clear that they medical folks aren't wrong, they are doing their job and being cautious. Instead ignorant people or bad faith actors are manipulating the words to create fear, because fear sells.

Yeah, and baseball has been around long enough anyway. I think it's time to put it to rest for the sake of superior sports. You know, like dodgeball or marble runs or something.

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yes I know that antibodies attach themselves to the ACE receptors to prevent the virus from basically "hijacking" a healthy cell, infecting it, and converting it into a little virus factory. I chose the word "stop" for simplicity's sake.

I'm not trying to spread bad info thru ignorant voices. I know I'm very ignorant on these subjects, and only trying to share information. If I did that poorly in your eyes, I am sorry. But honestly, if someone is coming to ffxiah for MEDICAL information, not discussion, good luck to them.

You weren't being ignorant at all, that's just the way Saevel is.

nah Saevel's good ppl- he's just like me in that we get upset with bad info out there. This clearly is something he knows more about, and wants the RIGHT info out there- no crime in that.

If we start up a conversation on the proper way to hone the valves of a trumpet, stay outta my way^^

It's topicban day!

Not real sure what part of no personal attacks was unclear

Explanation of how the body kills infected cells, short version: nukes from orbit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0WXVgYr30k


If you knew that, then you should have known that it was physically impossible for an antibody to stop an infection and therefor wouldn't of been alarmed when the news reported a doctor saying "COVID19 antibodies might not stop reinfections".

It's one of those "water is wet" kind of things.

Kinda cute video where a doctor explains the bodies various defense layers.



Again most of what we think of as symptoms is really the body fighting a war.