Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA

Right, but that means that TX CA and FL have twice the fallout, they doubly knew "it was coming" they saw literal case study as it were.

Well, some of their issues did come from unpreparedness.

Like the ventilator fiasco. Sure, they were warned back in 2006 that they would be short almost 10k ventilators, but they couldn't afford to keep them. Policies, funding, etc.

Partly their fault, but it has more to do with bad fiscal planning than preparing for a man-made disaster. I don't think anyone in 2018-2019 fiscal year thought we were going to come up to this, nor the budget appropriations of 2019 planned for this either...

You do know that my argument against using NY's numbers vs. TX/FL's numbers also holds true when you compare TX numbers from 2 months ago vs. TX numbers today.

It is also highly likely that Texas, California, and Florida also have underreported case numbers, due to lack of testing. May not be as much as New York's underreported numbers, but still there.

That is why it is much better to use the death count as a basis on the feasibility of policies, not case numbers, especially since there is so much questions on the validity of said case numbers.

Even then, death counts may not be accurate, due to overreporting of cases due to possibility/probability of non-COVID deaths being counted as COVID. Since, you know, the CDC issued guidelines to count is as a COVID death, even if the cause of death is not COVID related (aka heart attacks treated as COVID deaths if the deceased had COVID too).

Don't misunderstand what I meant; cases is still a valuable metric; it's just not an apples-to-apples one due to the number of independent variables, and that makes any sort of extrapolation or comparison weird.


One of the big things we've learned from this is that viruses do all kinds of ***to people; it's possible we've underestimated other viruses, and just never had a sufficiently large dataset to see the patterns. So I don't think that's crazy, really.

Florida's also got some credible accusations of fudging the numbers the OTHER way, which makes sense if you are a bloodless psychotic who sees cases/deaths as politics and not, you know, actual people with lives and loved ones. I kind of hope those accusations aren't true because if they are? Everyone involved in that decision is a straight up traitor, selling out constituent lives for optics.

I never heard of that.

Can you explain and/or link a piece for me? I want to look more into this if possible, but I don't have the time currently (plus, I'm lazy as ***).

deaths per 100,000 people infected is the only real way to compare different regions.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-rebekah-jones-files-whistleblower-complaint-20200717-wsmdu4pvsna7znphzrxjwoyhqu-story.html

I wouldn't put it past DeSantis, he has come up with a new excuse everyday. Recently he blamed the media for not reporting about covid in May as being the cause of the Memorial Day spikes, is that even believable? Other than Fox News, who wants to report on anything other than covid, the media has never stopped talking about it, for good reason.

Then yesterday he made something up about a private "testing industrial complex" inflating the Florida numbers for political purposes. Right.

The deaths are starting to catch up now, the country is averaging 1k deaths per day this week, and its going to be the end of the tin foil hats as that number continues to climb. I don't think any one state is going to catch New York in the near term, but that doesn't mean its not going to be bad. California, Florida, and Texas are going to have a really high death count by the end of August. The daily new cases might be plateauing in Texas, Florida not so much with another 12k cases today. But if we don't actually flatten the curve the way New York did, we will catch up to them, albeit slowly.

Well, rates tend to be more valuable than count. However, depending on what your goal is, a simple rate is far from a perfect unit for comparison. There are far too many variables at play to get to that Goldilocks apples-to-apples zone when the intent for many people is to just figure out who screwed up the most.

(That being said, taking jabs at Florida, New York, etc. is often too hard to resist....)

Medical experts urge US to shut down and start over as coronavirus cases surpass 4 million

Not really.

We can also look at excess deaths. That is deaths over X timespan this year vs. deaths over X timespan for the last 5 or so years averaged.

Fudge factors. Less auto accident deaths due to fewer miles driven (Includes pedestrian - auto fatalities.) Uptick in suicides. Fewer vacation fatalities. I can't think of any more fudge factors, please tell me if you can.

My best friend's brother is Nicholas Gill. Posting his name here is fine being he is a bit of a public figure, travel and food author and food critic, one of the co-founders of New Worlder.

Literally, you could not meet a more outwardly woke and intolerable to all things conservative couple than him and his Peruvian wife (I call her South American Snookie because she never shuts up and everything she says is loud and dumb. We don't get along). They own an apartment in Manhattan. They came to Ohio to stay at their parent's condo at a recreational lake (Buckeye Lake) near the end of the second week of the New York Covid outbreak and have been waiting in Ohio ever since. They have been extremely critical of how Cuomo has handled this entire situation including the nursing home death camps.

So from that perspective from an actual person(s) that actually live in NY and are pro-NY and liberal to their core, I'd have to say if even they are critical of NY's Covid initial response and continued response, I wouldn't lift up NY as a shining example.

Man, I spent a lot of summers there.

This is the thing people don't seem to get; actual New Yorkers *** hate Cuomo. It's the only thing in the state the left and the right can agree on. His national positive press is ONLY because of his brother being a CNN guy. That's it.

To borrow a baseball term (hi Vic!) he's not even a replacement-level governor; you could put almost anyone else with reasonable qualifications in that office and they would have a better track record. (That's true of a lot of governors to be blunt, but most of them aren't feted by the national media).

Cuomo earned the good press because his daily covid briefings in mid to late March were must see tv, they were the only source of positivity coming from any level of government. Trump was having daily unwatchable meltdowns where he spent all of his time attacking Americans and demanding credit for things he wasn't actually doing. Fast forward 3 months and nothing has changed in that regard.

I don't think we have the full story here.

I will wait and see how this plays out.

Let me guess, start over when there's a President with a (D) next to their name, right?

While his national popularity was soaring New Yorkers were saying "can I go back to hating Cuomo now?"

We have the full story. But I am waiting for the playout too.

No, they mean shut the country down and start over RFN.

Are you really happy with the current infection and death rate? Or perhaps you have internalized the republican call to go out, go back to work, shop till you drop, catch covid and die, all to recover the "Trump" economy.

I know, you, like myself, no longer work.

No idea how you can possibly think that, seeing as it's just her words against the states.

Not saying she's wrong, not saying she's right, nothing has been substantiated yet so it's about as "full story" as Christine Blasey Ford.

Like KN I'll withhold judgement until more is verified, and it will be one way or another. Or put simply, if we don't hear about this again then she probably lied, if CNN is carrying on about it in a few weeks then she's probably correct.

And all to get a (D) elected.

The Democrats couldn't give two shits about deaths or infections, they are sitting nice and comfy in their mansions having the servants deal with the peasants.

Lol.

Another reason dogs are better than humans....especially Democrats.

Nobody is happy with the infection/death rate.

The difference is, some of us are blaming the appropriate party for this disaster; China.

We don't spend our days practicing in bias confirmation by specifically seeking out Op Eds that favor our social/political outlook. You should pick up a different hobby, like puzzles or like, competitive women's basketball for the pleasantly aged.

Well let's see. She says she was fired 'cause she wouldn't fudge the data. The governor says she was fired for disobeying orders. I wonder what those orders were.

I beg your ****ing pardon. Its the republicans who are saying "there are more important things than living."

You can go die for "Trump's" economy if you like, but I would rather you didn't.

Yeah Buckeye Lake is fun. One side is like, the dirty people, side towards the little adjacent town. Those are the people who literally live there year around.

Then there's the "Oh that's my second 5,000 sq ft house" and pimped out condo side. That's where they are.

I love the dirty little bars/eateries (1 lb fried bologna sandwich when you are baked is like heaven) surrounding the lake and the outdoor music venue in basically that big farm field. Went to Hookah Fest there a couple times, don't recall much of it but I was sore for 3 days so must have been fun.

That's a complete misrepresentation of facts.

The people in favor of "getting on with it" are simply being realistic; there will never be a cure for Covid. Well, never say never but based on medical history, probably never. The only actual way to fight it off is to get it, your body builds at least some defense to it so that the next time you get it, and you will, it doesn't damn near kill you. Just like EVERY other virus humankind has ever dealt with.

How, exactly, do you think this one can/will be any different?

Another record setting (fri)day +78,009

Whether or not it will be cured, it's still a misrepresentation of facts. It's just another super narrow, brain-dead thought process where the ones making the argument aren't willing to go more than skin-deep. Once you have your sound-byte that sounds good on infinite repeat, the thinking stops.

There's a balance there, and yes, people do die as a result of bad economies too. I'm not saying we should just yee-haw into life exactly as we knew it, but you simply can't completely shut down and screw over the economy (Trump's or anyone else's) and expect that things will be better in the long run. Dems have been using "throw granny off the cliff" propaganda campaigns for decades because fear-mongering is stronger than facts, and this case isn't any different.

And I'm really tired of the, "Trump's economy" mentality liberals are blasting on about. I don't give a flying *** about Trump's legacy. This is OUR economy. When people work, less people are poor (and/or as poor). It makes their lives better, it makes them happier, it means less people whining for the sake of whining which we have a TON of that going on right now.

Everything is better when people are making more money for their efforts and you cannot have that when everything is shut down and people are losing their investments, retirement savings, jobs, small businesses, careers, shooting themselves in the head over financial difficulty.

NOBODY can say, "if we shut down, the virus spread will be culled." So far it seems nobody, experts or non-experts, pro-ReOpeners or pro-BLMers know anything about this virus, about how to stop it, about how to slow it down once it's out there like it is in the US. So people should stop acting like they do. Pointing to some Asian population who already wore masks from Day 1 due to pollution, or those who have 1/64th of the population AND those who famously flat out lie about stuff like this, isn't proving anything.

If there was simply an iota of consistency in their viewpoints during this, I probably wouldn't have this same feeling about it. But when they condemn outdoor graduations, outdoor gatherings of any kind, people couldn't see their dying relatives or attend outdoor funerals, THEN they (you know who you are including the supposed medical professional community with their hypocritical letter) proved that politics definitely has something to do with all of this when they gave the BLM protests a free pass. Once that happened, I now have trouble believing a single word from our biased press and any of your linked stories. I can't even trust the numbers the media is pumping out each day, and I'm the furthest thing from a conspiracy theorist there is.

Well, leave it to the GOP to slip a turd into the punchbowl...

GOP Coronavirus Relief Package to Include Romney Bill That Would 'Fast-Track Social Security and Medicare Cuts'

"They will use every opportunity and every crisis—including the mass death and economic carnage from Covid—as cover for their sick desire to destroy our Social Security system."
Common Dreams (With a name like that it has GOT to be lefty.)

This will affect your social security and medicare, not mine. Us existing certified old fogies will be grandfathered in. Our social security and medicare will simply wither away from never quite keeping up with inflation.