Random Politics & Religion #18

I thought this was a given? They'll also take his CCW.

Those who don't follow EU politics will not get it, but this is a terrifying picture

Keep telling yourself he's unpopular. It will surely secure he'll never be reelected.

These people are literally protesting figments of their imaginations.

Recent polls of his approval ratings say he is hovering at 30-40%, making him the least popular incoming US president since such polling began in 1977.

Obama's approval rating is currently ~70%

Don't waste your time with nausi he makes it up as he goes along. I thought it was funny yesterday how Fox News ran a Bias Alert, networks call Trump's speech militant, then their own superstar, Bill O'Reilly leads off his primetime show calling Trump's speech guess what..militant. He attacked everyone.

Just think what would have happened if most of these protesters managed to drag their butts out of their houses to vote. Paint the pictures more rosy if you want, but the fact remains that the Democrats have lost a ton of power and no amount of fruitless protesting will fix it if people can't bother to give a crap on election day.

Hillary Clinton got more votes than any losing candidate (or Republican) in US history. What is up with the "people didn't show up to vote" narrative? lol

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-voter-turnout-wasnt-way-down-from-2012/

She lost because the Democratic base is urban and cities are punctate, often only affecting one or two states. The electoral college favors low population density states, and Trump's base is more rural.

That's not the point of protesting - at least not from intelligent people I'd wager.

Protest marches in general are meant to emphasize the existence of people who are being disparaged or abandoned by the government or society as a whole, for it to be reminded about their condition. In this case the issue is some of the hatred-inspiring things Trump has said throughout this awful campaign. It's important to state "remember that wasn't fine and still isn't".

To be complacent and allow aggressive rethoric to be normalized should never be acceptable. And this is not a matter of parties.

It was more than just the presidential election. Democrats have lost a ton of ground on the local level too. The point is that these protest numbers are meaningless since it's accomplishing nothing.

And those same polls said he would lose the nomination by a large margin and then later that he would lose the presidency by an even larger margin. Yeah didn't happen.

You got to remember, Trumps biggest support base is the rural Americans who do not answer polls, don't participate in the political process, and usually don't even care who's President. They wake up, go to work (if they can), stop by the grocery store on the way home, have dinner with their family and then watch football or a TV show before going to bed. They view all politicians are "those idiots that always screw us over" and are for the most part completely ignored by the political industry. These are the same people liberals are famous for criticizing as "those ignorant backwards country hicks living in caves". This last election was them speaking, not with their mouths, not with a poll but with what matters most, their vote. All those states that went Red, that was those people showing up at their local schools and voting for the first time in a long time, rather then keeping that time off. Seriously look at the county map of the USA, look at the massive amounts of red throughout the entire country. The only blue area's are around major cities, mostly on the coastline. Hell even Texas, the "super conservative" state had it's cities vote blue.

As far as the world is concerned, anyone not an American is a member of the peanut gallery. This is an American election for the American President, the people in the UK, EU, South American, Canada and Asia can all go to hell. One of the biggest mistakes the left made was thinking that the world should have a voice in the American election, that REALLY pissed of rural people.

So honestly the polls are all meaningless. All they say is that 40% of the people who answered the phone and stayed on the line, approved of trump, out of the exact same group that was called for the primaries and for the general election. Yes a majority of liberals and city dwellers don't like Trump, we know this, doesn't change the outcome.

No.

The EC is a compromise between Large and Small states as determined by the founding fathers out of a (justified) fear that the larger states would dominate the smaller ones. The EC votes are distributed by the total number of congressional representatives, so Senators + Representatives. Senators are given at two per state regardless, Representatives are determined by the size of the population during the census. Originally the idea was to have congress elect the President directly but it was agreed that would unbalance the separation of powers as congress would election someone that would do what they wanted. Instead each state would elect it's own temporary body of representatives that would then gather and vote for the President, that body would only exist for the election and was known as the Electoral College.

Now look again at that HUGE red map of the USA. Each of those congressional districts that turned red, that's a vote for Trump. Notice those small number of districts that are Blue, that's a vote for Hillary. The Senate is now Majority Republican, so Trump would of won those too. Thus Trump still won the popular vote because California doesn't decide the President (seriously look at Hillary's lead there, that's where her popular vote is from).

What you, and others arguing from the "popular vote" gallery, are doing is stating that California should determine the President because they are so much bigger then everyone else. That really pisses off those same rural voters, because your basically saying they don't matter, which just further drives them to vote Red. The Democrats are about to lose a lot of seats if they don't wake up and realize that 90% of the people they ignored in the past are now paying attention and very angry at them.

Polls accurately predicted Trump losing the national vote.

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/198155/national-polling-accurately-nails-popular-vote.aspx

Polls didn't fail. He shot the moon to win the electoral college.

The state polls failed pretty bad. I guess we should applaud them for being correct where the result is irrelevant.

I was going to go to the women's march in DC but I don't support abortion feminism or marching !

Can't they protest abortion without clogging up the streets of DC just put up a banner or something ?

Lack of abortion rights I mean. *

Polls failed hard core. They predicted an easy Hillary winning, they Predicted Cruz or Bush would win the Primary. And in both cases they were horribly wrong.

The problem with those polls is that they only target registered voters. To make it easier they usually pick from a large registry, which happens to be in the cities. Furthermore they only get data from people who stay on the line and actually want to spend their time answering, which the vast majority of rural voters don't do. So who are they really polling? They are polling people who live in urban area's and have the time and desire to answer a political question on a random phone call during the middle of the day, or go to some website and fill out a questionnaire. Then they amplify certain ethnic groups in an attempt to "better represent" them and what you get is a horribly skewed poll that's about as useful as astrology and horoscopes.

What changed with this election? Typically rural voters didn't vote in the past, they just took their day off and had a beer. They didn't care about politics and just went about living their life without participating. Politicians took note of this and as a result focused their efforts on those who are likely to vote, urban dwellers / suburban dwellers who are fairly close to the voting station and do somewhat participate in the process. This has been going on for decades now and when the economy exploded in 2008 (due to relaxed regulation overheating it) the rural area's were hurt the most. The recovery process has been almost entirely in the cities due to liberal policies stagnating it and the result is a lot of rural voters feeling pissed off at both parties for ignoring them entirely. Then someone like Trump comes along who see's this and decides to recognize this voter block and appeal directly to them, using the language and culture they use, much to the anger of everyone else.

So there you go, he's likely to get elected again in 2020 because liberals won't have sufficiently changed their course due to blaming everything and everyone except themselves.

I'm shocked the USA is not in ruin. I mean it's been about an entire day with Trump. No nuclear explosions or random women being grabbed by the pussy... I mean what gives where is the end times I was promised !

I'm surprised the liberals aren't demanding we vote for parliament seats and have a prime minister, they seem to think the US is a European country with their same political system.

If people don't like the USA's political process then they can emigrate like they said they would. If they are attached to the USA them they are unabashed hypocrites because the culture and nation was formed by that same political process. You can't change the political process without calling a Constitutional Convention to have the Constitution modified, which would require approval by the same States they seek to exclude. Amendments only clarify and extend the Constitution, they can't remove the base functions defined therein.

Is there a breakdown of state polling accuracy that supports this?

I followed the RCP state polls pretty closely. Polls for Michigan had Clinton up around 3-4, Pennsylvania around 2, Wisconsin around 6-7. When election night started, the NYT had their pre-election projections based on state polls and those got completely destroyed.

On a side note, where the frick is this 70% figure coming from? I'm seeing a lot of 55-58.

The 70% is coming from Chicago.

Depends on who you ask remember. I'm sure 100% of Clinton voters supported Clinton as 100% of Obama voters supported Obama. So the real question becomes how are the mix's of which voters to ask? Also are they including illegal residents in those polls, like several liberal ones do?

For an interesting break down on the Rural : Urban split

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/14/501737150/rural-voters-played-a-big-part-in-helping-trump-defeat-clinton

Hillary had the cities and was so comfortable that she completely ignored rural voters throughout her entire campaign. Like most liberals the mentality was "they are ignorant uneducated backwards country hicks", talk about a divisive campaign of identity politics. Trump on the other hand ran on a platform of unity, as in "every American together" and talked to both Urban and Rural alike, which was the whole point of the "Make American Great Again" slogan. You know the one that paid liberal TV personalities would ridicule during nightly news sessions. And the result is that Trump won as a long shot candidate. I can still remember seeing those same nightly TV personalities, breaking down on national TV as the reports came in. "How can I tell my children that a bad man like Trump won..." ***like that.

Note on the above, Illegal residents are not "Americans" in the definition of this country. No matter how badly Democrats want to turn them into new Democrat voters, they are not citizens and do not have the right to vote nor decide the policies of this nation. The only people who were offended by Trump were those who wouldn't of voted for him anyway.

Joke of the day.

Compared to Clinton, he did.

Remember, if you aren't with Clinton, you are a deplorable.

Sorry for multiple posts but no edit button to add this.

Interesting note on the concept of voter eligibility vs census population count in relation to "voter turnout".

I know wiki


Primary source

http://www.uvm.edu/~dguber/POLS234/articles/mcdonald.pdf

Our population data is taken from the Census data without removing those ineligible to vote, specifically non-Americans. California has a high immigrant population that doesn't have the right to vote because they aren't citizens but who are counted for the total population base.

Not a single part of the Trump campaign, nor anything he has said since winning, including his hostile inauguration speech, involved the idea of unity in the US. What demographic hasn't he trashed?