|
|
Is the future of consoles at risk?
VIP
Server: Siren
Game: FFXI
Posts: 14552
By Siren.Kalilla 2012-03-18 20:23:48
The point you guys are missing is that it's not the hardcore gamers who are already into console gaming that are gonna make the biggest impact on this issue. It's the moms and dads buying the latest doo-dad for their kids at Christmas and birthday time.
Think about how you got your first console ever.
For me it was dad put a NES under the tree one Christmas because it was the hot new tech toy and he thought it was cool. He's not a gamer. He wasn't interested in immersive experiences. He just saw the marketing blitz and wanted to get something neat at Christmas time. As a result "I" became a gamer yes.
But take that same scenario today and I could see a dad in that same situation grab an iPad instead of a console and producing a kid that never becomes a fan of or even cares about console gaming.
Here's another thought, kid with no money in my childhood would get a paper route or do chores do buy the cool stuff they saw on TV. Today, kids can play games for free (or for a few dollars) at home from their PC or perhaps their phone.
If I'm already receiving gaming stimulus within my own means as a 10 year old, what is my motivation to save up 50$ to go out and buy something? Console may be better or more immersive but if I'm already satisfied doing something that's right in front of me I'm less motivated to bother looking to consoles, much less get one.
So that's, I think, the point. People who already love consoles will of course continue to love them. Problem is less NEW generation dads and kids will bother to get into consoles from here on out in the face of cheaper and more easily accessible alternatives that "seem" cooler anyway.
Thank you, that is exactly what I wanted to get out of this topic. The discussion on whether or not that is a possibility in the next generation coming.
Cerberus.Eugene
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 6999
By Cerberus.Eugene 2012-03-18 20:25:10
The point you guys are missing is that it's not the hardcore gamers who are already into console gaming that are gonna make the biggest impact on this issue. It's the moms and dads buying the latest doo-dad for their kids at Christmas and birthday time.
Think about how you got your first console ever.
For me it was dad put a NES under the tree one Christmas because it was the hot new tech toy and he thought it was cool. He's not a gamer. He wasn't interested in immersive experiences. He just saw the marketing blitz and wanted to get something neat at Christmas time. As a result "I" became a gamer yes.
But take that same scenario today and I could see a dad in that same situation grab an iPad instead of a console and producing a kid that never becomes a fan of or even cares about console gaming.
Here's another thought, kid with no money in my childhood would get a paper route or do chores do buy the cool stuff they saw on TV. Today, kids can play games for free (or for a few dollars) at home from their PC or perhaps their phone.
If I'm already receiving gaming stimulus within my own means as a 10 year old, what is my motivation to save up 50$ to go out and buy something? Console may be better or more immersive but if I'm already satisfied doing something that's right in front of me I'm less motivated to bother looking to consoles, much less get one.
So that's, I think, the point. People who already love consoles will of course continue to love them. Problem is less NEW generation dads and kids will bother to get into consoles from here on out in the face of cheaper and more easily accessible alternatives that "seem" cooler anyway.
The problem with your point is your discussing content versus delivery as if its the same thing. Its not. There will be a market for more theatrical full length expensive games. Many people still want quality over quantity. People don't stop going to movie theaters and watching tv because you can get free videos on youtube.
The only argument that does make sense is method of delivery, because at the end of the day free to play won't be the only demand out there.
Server: Bismarck
Game: FFXI
Posts: 2595
By Bismarck.Elanabelle 2012-03-18 20:26:20
By Quiznor 2012-03-18 20:30:16
I didnt read anything on the first page,or anything on the 2nd either,only elanabelle's post because I couldnt help but see it.
Consoles arent dead,but they should be for the specs we're "rumored"to be getting in the next generation its absolutely appauling.
Leviathan.Bimbam
Server: Leviathan
Game: FFXI
Posts: 159
By Leviathan.Bimbam 2012-03-18 20:30:35
Quote: all the processing is done server end? That's got to put a huge strain on their infrastructure.
And yet it works. Friend of mine back in England has already been using it as he travels most of the time due to his job. The issue is more your own net connection being stable than theirs.
Annoyingly not available in Australia yet as the latency to their servers are too high -.-
Leviathan.Bimbam
Server: Leviathan
Game: FFXI
Posts: 159
By Leviathan.Bimbam 2012-03-18 20:38:58
Quote: People don't stop going to movie theaters and watching tv because you can get free videos on youtube.
When I was in England, Iplayer, 4OD, ITV player and TVcatchup completely replaced TV. While watching free films in higher quality while cinema prices increased certainly had an impact on my cinema going.
I might be more inclined to goto the cinema if their projectors weren't from the dark ages. I'd take a HD film over cinema any day of the week.
Cerberus.Eugene
Server: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 6999
By Cerberus.Eugene 2012-03-18 20:41:19
On demand services still use the same content used for tv, just at a later date. Again a difference in delivery, not a difference in content.
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 525
By Asura.Leonlionheart 2012-03-18 20:55:03
Until an ipod can play a 60 hour long RPG, consoles will never be dead to me.
http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/final-fantasy-iii-for-ipad/id430823968?mt=8
VIP
Server: Siren
Game: FFXI
Posts: 14552
By Siren.Kalilla 2012-03-18 21:00:13
Caitsith.Mahayaya
Server: Caitsith
Game: FFXI
Posts: 3341
By Caitsith.Mahayaya 2012-03-18 21:02:42
Consoles have at least one more generation to go before tablets possibly run them off.
VIP
Server: Siren
Game: FFXI
Posts: 14552
By Siren.Kalilla 2012-03-18 21:09:00
I have a question.
What makes a console a console and why can't something like iPhone or iPad not? Aren't they also a standard that doesn't change until the next generation comes out and during that time new Aps and games have to be limited to the specs of the device?
Lakshmi.Jesi
Server: Lakshmi
Game: FFXI
Posts: 576
By Lakshmi.Jesi 2012-03-18 21:10:01
Caitsith.Mahayaya said: »Consoles have at least one more generation to go before tablets possibly run them off.
You must not game much on tablets.
Touch controls are very prohibitive.
Unless you are going to hook up a controller to a tablet and even then the screen is horrible.
Maybe they could take over for mobile gaming, but not consoles.
Caitsith.Mahayaya
Server: Caitsith
Game: FFXI
Posts: 3341
By Caitsith.Mahayaya 2012-03-18 21:14:56
Caitsith.Mahayaya said: »Consoles have at least one more generation to go before tablets possibly run them off.
You must not game much on tablets.
Touch controls are very prohibitive.
Unless you are going to hook up a controller to a tablet and even then the screen is horrible.
Maybe they could take over for mobile gaming, but not consoles.
That.
Bluetooth devices(for "hardcore" people) + Tablet + Tablet Stand is the next generation.
Screens will get better, computing power will get better, and it doubles over as a computer and a gaming device.
Just because something's on a tablet doesn't mean it has to require touch(though most games, especially casual, will probably try to do this). Can have it check for Bluetooth controller to see if you can play.
By Quiznor 2012-03-18 21:18:18
I'd rather play it on my DS
or emulator on pc
Server: Odin
Game: FFXI
Posts: 4016
By Odin.Godofgods 2012-03-18 21:38:37
Sylph.Kimble
Server: Sylph
Game: FFXI
Posts: 2912
By Sylph.Kimble 2012-03-18 21:42:16
So all ipad has to offer in terms of epic RPGs is games that have already been around a long time and can be emulated on almost anything?
Also, I find it funny that Kalilla likes posts saying just "No, consoles aren't dying" yet wants to debate with me and doesn't like anything I have to say, lol.
Likely, I think consoles have a while to go before they "die" while true that parents might buy things like ipads, iphones, etc for their kids instead of consoles, our generation that grew on on consoles and who have the money to buy them as they come out and not have to want for holidays, births etc, will keep buying consoles so it all evens out really. Unless ipads start getting games as good as those you find on ps3, xbox, they wont die.
And Nintendo consoles have the best advantage because they will never allow their first party games to be on other devices but their own.
Phoenix.Isttahl
Server: Phoenix
Game: FFXI
Posts: 42
By Phoenix.Isttahl 2012-03-18 22:19:10
I did not read the article that was attached to the OP. After reading through the thread I haven't seen anything mentioned about the quality of parts that the new generation consoles are using.
I understand inflation and because of this the cost of game consoles have gone up in price. With that said though, how do you justify spending $250 or more for one of these consoles and in a year or two have to replace the console. We all know about the xbox red ring of death and the PS's has its own problems. We all have our own horror stories or have a friend that has been through x amount of these consoles.
I have a friend and brother who went through so many xbox's they jumped to ps3 only to have problems on that front. Even if your lucky enough to have the problem develop while your under warranty, its still a major inconvenience.
To me the death of the console won't come from a tablet or even a pc. It will come from the console companies. No one wants to invest so much money into a console to have to keep buying new ones. I have one of the Original ps2's, the big one that you had the option to use the hard drive and had to buy the network adapter to connect online. My son now uses it. The console is older then him and still plays well.
To me the cost of that ps2 was worth the investment. My 2nd 360 is just a dust collector that sits on the floor. Light comes on, but does nothing. The point that I'm trying to make is that we compare the cost of the new generation console's at release to inflation. However, how is it worth the cost if the console breaks every few years. We hear that to keep the release price for the consumer down, they had to use cheaper materials in the console, which caused the problem.
I don't know to many people who are willing to keep throwing money away on any system that won't last. I would much rather spend another 250 or more on games. My ps2 still runs well, why can't we expect the same from newer generation systems?
[+]
VIP
Server: Siren
Game: FFXI
Posts: 14552
By Siren.Kalilla 2012-03-18 22:21:39
also, I find it funny that Kalilla likes posts saying just "No, consoles aren't dying" yet wants to debate with me and doesn't like anything I have to say, lol. ?... I liked your post on page one lol...
I don't even compare a PC to a console since having PC would require you to have the funds to keep upgrading as newer games come out.
Lakshmi.Jesi
Server: Lakshmi
Game: FFXI
Posts: 576
By Lakshmi.Jesi 2012-03-18 22:36:15
Caitsith.Mahayaya said: »Caitsith.Mahayaya said: »Consoles have at least one more generation to go before tablets possibly run them off.
You must not game much on tablets.
Touch controls are very prohibitive.
Unless you are going to hook up a controller to a tablet and even then the screen is horrible.
Maybe they could take over for mobile gaming, but not consoles.
That.
Bluetooth devices(for "hardcore" people) + Tablet + Tablet Stand is the next generation.
Screens will get better, computing power will get better, and it doubles over as a computer and a gaming device.
Just because something's on a tablet doesn't mean it has to require touch(though most games, especially casual, will probably try to do this). Can have it check for Bluetooth controller to see if you can play.
lol no.
No one is going to carry around a tablet with a controller just to have a mobile gaming machine when they can play better games on the DS etc if they were that "hardcore".
Also when people are at home, are they going to play games on their small tablet with a controller or their 40"+ TV?
Not to mention the market for such games is incredibly small. You aren't going to find a company making a game for the tablet that requires a controller. They would be games that would be touch screen with the option of a controller.
If anything is going to kill consoles and replace them, it sure wont be tablets.
Not to mention if this kind of gaming was so popular, then laptops would have dominated the market long ago.
Caitsith.Mahayaya
Server: Caitsith
Game: FFXI
Posts: 3341
By Caitsith.Mahayaya 2012-03-18 22:39:16
I have a question.
What makes a console a console and why can't something like iPhone or iPad not? Aren't they also a standard that doesn't change until the next generation comes out and during that time new Aps and games have to be limited to the specs of the device?
A console is just a piece of hardware, but unlike all-in-one devices like a tablet, they have no screen and have finite use which making it not ideal for everyone to purchase. If people continue to replace their computers with smartphones and tablets, they already have the hardware to play games, why wouldn't game developers create games for such a large market of people?
Already the iPad 3 matches the sheer RAM of a PS3. The screen has a resolution of 2048 × 1536. And can host Bluetooth devices just like the PS3 controller. As hardware gets replaced companies decide if it's worth the cost to make something for the market. If a Playstation 6 isn't going to sell, why would they bother making it?
My guess is that the tablet market will likely have 3 large players. Android based, Apple based, and Windows based, and developers who can afford to port games to each of these markets will do so.
People still play NES and SNES games on console. So it's not like the world will stop using them altogether. But once it isn't profitable for a business to make it, they just won't do so. You'll still be playing your console while the rest of the world has moved on with an all-in-one device that has games. And if Nintendo decides that it can't make ground into the tablet market in 15 years, then you may see them porting over their games to the tablet leaders for dough.
Think about it... Carry around a controller and device that has some games that connects to a TV, or carry around your all-in-one device that has some games and also can connect to a TV.
[+]
Caitsith.Mahayaya
Server: Caitsith
Game: FFXI
Posts: 3341
By Caitsith.Mahayaya 2012-03-18 22:41:48
So all ipad has to offer in terms of epic RPGs is games that have already been around a long time and can be emulated on almost anything?
In my opinion, iPad gaming is in its Intellivision stages: popular, but hasn't quite boomed yet. When the Nintendo stage hits, I'm hoping there's going to be a second coming of awesome games.
Caitsith.Mahayaya
Server: Caitsith
Game: FFXI
Posts: 3341
By Caitsith.Mahayaya 2012-03-18 22:47:10
lol no.
No one is going to carry around a tablet with a controller just to have a mobile gaming machine when they can play better games on the DS etc if they were that "hardcore".
They will already be carrying around their tablet so why wouldn't game designers take advantage of that? It's short sighted to force someone to bring around a separate device just to play a game.
Also when people are at home, are they going to play games on their small tablet with a controller or their 40"+ TV?
Why not hook up the tablet to a TV? It takes all of one cable.
Not to mention the market for such games is incredibly small. You aren't going to find a company making a game for the tablet that requires a controller. They would be games that would be touch screen with the option of a controller.
Perhaps now, but as tablets proliferate it will be a much larger market for games. It's silly to think that things will just stop as they are now and never progress.
If anything is going to kill consoles and replace them, it sure wont be tablets.
Not to mention if this kind of gaming was so popular, then laptops would have dominated the market long ago.
I'm not saying this will happen in 5 years, maybe not even 10. I'm sure that consoles can exist 12ish years before being wiped out by all-in-one devices.
[+]
Sylph.Kimble
Server: Sylph
Game: FFXI
Posts: 2912
By Sylph.Kimble 2012-03-18 22:49:26
I think the thing is consoles won't die, they will evolve. Much like 360, ps3 and Wii have evolved and aren't the same kinda consoles we grew up with.
Phoenix.Vael
Server: Phoenix
Game: FFXI
Posts: 384
By Phoenix.Vael 2012-03-18 23:21:09
I think the thing is consoles won't die, they will evolve. Much like 360, ps3 and Wii have evolved and aren't the same kinda consoles we grew up with.
The question is how can they evolve and proliferate enough to make a name in a market already dominated by an all-in-one tablet. Yes, Sony can make their future PlayStation an all-in-one device, like an iPhone or larger tablet. However, it'd be competing with the original iOS and Android devices, as well as the Nintendo and Microsoft all-in-one that those companies would also have to adapt for the market. And would you buy all three just to play your favourite exclusive franchises from Nintendo? Maybe so, but it is safe to say very few would, so like Mahayaya is saying, the classic game developers would become third-party. It would be in their best interest.
Just look at how Microsoft struggled to introduce the first Xbox, or how the PS3 struggled even more heavily upon release due to its hefty price tag. Every one of these systems would have a similar price - the hardcore gamer will demand availability, and it will be harder and harder to buy every console from every developer.
Besides that, this case is already almost cut and dry for the casual gamer. The proliferation of all-in-one devices like the iPhone or iPad has already stolen the entire market of casual games that began as Pogo or Shockwave games and are now the ever-popular Facebook games our grandmothers play. DS and PSP games are already being ported to iOS (FFT: The War of the Lions comes to mind), and I know since I'm already carrying my iPhone on me when I ride the bus, I'm choosing to play it any time I have the chance.
Handheld games never equated to portable games in this way; it was rare I would ever ride the bus with my Gameboy or DS unless I was really into the game I was playing at the time. Even as a child, it'd be the front step of the house, the park nearby, or with all the other kids on the block who played Pokemon. All-in-one devices really put the title 'portable' back in the handheld. A title it never deserved.
[+]
Sylph.Kimble
Server: Sylph
Game: FFXI
Posts: 2912
By Sylph.Kimble 2012-03-18 23:49:05
I'm just going to say that I don't agree at all with what you are saying, and that unless they have a system that heavily bombs, I doubt Nintendo will ever become a third-party developer.
Asura.Shylaa
Server: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 200
By Asura.Shylaa 2012-03-18 23:57:11
The point you guys are missing is that it's not the hardcore gamers who are already into console gaming that are gonna make the biggest impact on this issue. It's the moms and dads buying the latest doo-dad for their kids at Christmas and birthday time.
Think about how you got your first console ever.
For me it was dad put a NES under the tree one Christmas because it was the hot new tech toy and he thought it was cool. He's not a gamer. He wasn't interested in immersive experiences. He just saw the marketing blitz and wanted to get something neat at Christmas time. As a result "I" became a gamer yes.
But take that same scenario today and I could see a dad in that same situation grab an iPad instead of a console and producing a kid that never becomes a fan of or even cares about console gaming.
Here's another thought, kid with no money in my childhood would get a paper route or do chores do buy the cool stuff they saw on TV. Today, kids can play games for free (or for a few dollars) at home from their PC or perhaps their phone.
If I'm already receiving gaming stimulus within my own means as a 10 year old, what is my motivation to save up 50$ to go out and buy something? Console may be better or more immersive but if I'm already satisfied doing something that's right in front of me I'm less motivated to bother looking to consoles, much less get one.
So that's, I think, the point. People who already love consoles will of course continue to love them. Problem is less NEW generation dads and kids will bother to get into consoles from here on out in the face of cheaper and more easily accessible alternatives that "seem" cooler anyway.
The problem with your point is your discussing content versus delivery as if its the same thing. Its not. There will be a market for more theatrical full length expensive games. Many people still want quality over quantity. People don't stop going to movie theaters and watching tv because you can get free videos on youtube.
The only argument that does make sense is method of delivery, because at the end of the day free to play won't be the only demand out there.
I've just about stopped going to the movies altogether if I can download it online. Not worth the cost or time to drive to the theater and pay to have jackasses in front/behind you ruining a movie.
[+]
Valefor.Artemys
Server: Valefor
Game: FFXI
Posts: 307
By Valefor.Artemys 2012-03-18 23:58:51
Until an ipod can play a 60 hour long RPG, consoles will never be dead to me. Some of these can reach that 60hour mark, Others can come close:
http://dlgames.square-enix.com/na/ipod/
Sylph.Alesis
Server: Sylph
Game: FFXI
Posts: 179
By Sylph.Alesis 2012-03-19 00:03:56
The point you guys are missing is that it's not the hardcore gamers who are already into console gaming that are gonna make the biggest impact on this issue. It's the moms and dads buying the latest doo-dad for their kids at Christmas and birthday time.
Think about how you got your first console ever.
For me it was dad put a NES under the tree one Christmas because it was the hot new tech toy and he thought it was cool. He's not a gamer. He wasn't interested in immersive experiences. He just saw the marketing blitz and wanted to get something neat at Christmas time. As a result "I" became a gamer yes.
But take that same scenario today and I could see a dad in that same situation grab an iPad instead of a console and producing a kid that never becomes a fan of or even cares about console gaming.
Here's another thought, kid with no money in my childhood would get a paper route or do chores do buy the cool stuff they saw on TV. Today, kids can play games for free (or for a few dollars) at home from their PC or perhaps their phone.
If I'm already receiving gaming stimulus within my own means as a 10 year old, what is my motivation to save up 50$ to go out and buy something? Console may be better or more immersive but if I'm already satisfied doing something that's right in front of me I'm less motivated to bother looking to consoles, much less get one.
So that's, I think, the point. People who already love consoles will of course continue to love them. Problem is less NEW generation dads and kids will bother to get into consoles from here on out in the face of cheaper and more easily accessible alternatives that "seem" cooler anyway.
The problem with your point is your discussing content versus delivery as if its the same thing. Its not. There will be a market for more theatrical full length expensive games. Many people still want quality over quantity. People don't stop going to movie theaters and watching tv because you can get free videos on youtube.
The only argument that does make sense is method of delivery, because at the end of the day free to play won't be the only demand out there.
I've just about stopped going to the movies altogether if I can download it online. Not worth the cost or time to drive to the theater and pay to have jackasses in front/behind you ruining a movie.
Absolutely. I only go to the movies about twice a year anymore for these exact reasons and even then I'm usually being dragged there by someone.
Ragnarok.Eriina
Server: Ragnarok
Game: FFXI
Posts: 294
By Ragnarok.Eriina 2012-03-19 01:11:09
The problem with your point is your discussing content versus delivery as if its the same thing. Its not. Actually, i wasn't discussing content at all. The question on the table is whether "consoles" are dying. Not whether all-in-one devices can provide good content. If we are going to tweak the semantics and say "iPhones and facebook are like the next consoles bro!", then the discussion becomes moot altogether.
If we are changing the semantics of what a "console" is to say that something is a "console" regardless of its delivery method, i could very well say that the American "arcade" is still alive an well, it's just private and in my living room now.
People don't stop going to movie theaters and watching tv because you can get free videos on youtube.
They most certainly do, as others have attested to above. It's a matter of oppourtunity costs. Does going to the movies, the time and money spent in doing so, grant me a sufficiently greater number of utiles than just watching it at home? For some people going out to the movies is still an all encompassing enjoyable experience, others don't care for the extra atmosphere. Check up on how movie publishers feel about online movie pirating if you think it isn't making an impact on their market.
while true that parents might buy things like ipads, iphones, etc for their kids instead of consoles, our generation that grew on on consoles and who have the money to buy them as they come out and not have to want for holidays, births etc, will keep buying consoles so it all evens out really.
Excpet that it won't because there are way less people that care about games than people that don't. Hardcore gaming has always been, and will likely always be, a niche market which feeds off the average consumer to pay most of its bills. Nintendo, Sony and microsoft all play to the average consumer with stupid motion controls, desperatly trying to get that uninformed mom to buy one for christmas. Desperately trying to get that football jock to get one for the frat to play motion games at thier next kegger. They didn't introduce that crap for people like you and me. That's for sure.
Also: Sega is already (trying) to develop apps for iOS among other platforms. Go back in time to the late 80's and ask a kid who own a Genesis and not an NES if he thinks that'll ever ever happen.
[+]
I read an article on IGN that made me start thinking. The article in I read is below, spoilered because people are focusing too much on IGN and not the actual discussion, is really just about whether or not free-to-play gaming is becoming serious competition in the gaming market. Is the newer generation becoming more involved in free-to-play gaming over consoles? In the past the consoles have dominated the market pushing out arcades, but now that the internet has become what it is today and the newer generation of players are being influenced by something we've never really had to deal with before is there risk for major console companies to fall out because of this new competition?
There are pro's and con's to each side, and would like discussion to be about that and not that this article came from IGN.
Are Consoles Dead?
Pundits are insisting that games consoles are headed for doom. IGN offers an
| opinion on the biggest question in gaming. | by Colin Campbell, March 15, 2012 |
The traditional games business is worth around $25 billion a year, so the obvious answer to the question of whether or not consoles are dead, is a resounding 'what the hell are you talking about?'
Not only, but consoles are freakin' awesome. They are built to play games. Certainly, they are ugly brutes, hideous noisy boxes, but by all that is holy, they make life good. This is why talk of their 'death' is so upsetting.
Nevertheless, talk we must.
It's true that consoles move through existence with every sign of vitality, but there are suggestions of an inner sickness, a sense of impending dilapidation. Sorrow awaits.
Things go from hale and hearty to stone cold and underground in a spectacularly short period of time, most especially in the tech and entertainment businesses.

Ben Cousins' argument from GDC
Between them, the business units at Sony and Microsoft have lost a whacking $10 billion since 2000.
|
None of this is good. The things that we are supposed to believe will "replace" consoles aren't as good at playing games, aren't designed for this specific, sacred purpose, aren't as emotionally interesting. The death of consoles, if such is their fate, would be a disaster for 'gaming' as we who game understand the term. There is no circle of life crap going on here. It's all bad.
These notions, and the arguments that follow in this article, will be dominating strategic thinking at Sony and Microsoft, as leaders at these august firms decide how to approach their next generation consoles.
For the people who make the consoles, this play of launching new machines represents the biggest risks on both companies' books. If they get this wrong, it would be catastrophic for them.
Little wonder they are holding back. (There are no plans for either Sony or Microsoft to show a new machine at E3 this year.)
Look at it from their point of view. Between them, the business units at Sony and Microsoft have lost a whacking $10 billion since 2000. The opportunity that greeted both companies at the dawn of the century was ownership of the living room, a place at the center of consumer's entertainment lives. It was a noble investment.
But that opportunity does not look anywhere near as attractive now.
In 2000, the year the world's best-selling console ever was launched, Apple was still 12 months away from launching iPhone's progenitor iPod and thereby changing the history of entertainment. Now it's the most valuable company in the world and the most powerful player in the gaming business. Facebook didn't exist. Free-to-play made zero sense. PC gaming was screwed. The assumptions and the projections Sony and Microsoft were making back then just don't exist anymore.

The confidence of yesteryear.
When Peter Moore bound onto the stage at various E3s in the middle part of the last decade, he was seriously arguing that consoles would be the devices through which we consumed entertainment and communicated with one another. At the time, it seemed plausible.
If he tried that shtick today, he' be dragged away by burly nurses, and semi-gently invited to spend some quiet time in a sparsely furnished room.
It's not just the titanic cost, the gargantuan risk this undertaking represents. Problem is, the opportunity for riches is undoubtedly smaller than it's ever been before. For the first time in many console generations, no-one is seriously predicting that the next generation will be bigger than the last. Not even Jack Tretton.
| Where are the New Consoles? |
So the answer to the question about the death of consoles can be found in how the console manufacturers are behaving. And here's the thing. They don't look too keen, do they? If history is any indicator, we are well past due some new machines.
The console guys are looking at this like the man who, having furtively popped into Burger King on his way back from work, is presented at home with a surprisingly large spaghetti bolognese.
At the beginning of this year, Nanea Reeves was mocked and derided for suggesting that one company in the current console battle might drop out. Look, it's unlikely but it's really not that crazy. Sony is seriously short of dough. Microsoft is just starting to claw back some of its investments in the games business.
There are a lot of great business reasons why either of these companies might find an urgently hot thing to fill their attention. The world has changed.

Will PlayStation 4 look like this?
Sony boss Kaz Hirai loves games, but not enough to bring one of Japan's greatest ever corporations to its knees. Whatever form PlayStation 4 takes, he's got to come up with something genuinely new. A better-graphics box at $400? Not going to work.
Already we hear stories of an next Xbox that doesn't even have a disk drive. What kinda console is that? Well, maybe it's one that reflects a changing reality - that the future is certainly not about going to the mall and buying a $60 game about shooting people. In England, the country's biggest retailer of games is about to go bust. If that's not a bad sign, then what is?
And what of Nintendo, the original high priest of console-dom, keeper of the flame? It is a company that has never looked less likely to stand astride the Chichen Itza of global entertainment. It is a supplicant, in the thrall of the new gods. We are told that 3DS is a successful handheld gaming device, Compared to what Vita? Sure. Compared to iPhone? Bow down Mario. Grovel in the dirt Donkey Kong.
Even Wii U, the one and only "next generation" console that we have seen looks a lot like a certain other Apple product. A handheld screen, by golly. So much for disruptive technology. So much for blue sky thinking.

A box.
Everyone in gaming is getting ready for the next generation consoles to arrive. We are able to write off 20% year-on-year declines in game sales as a mere symptom of late-cycle ennui and lower numbers of big game releases.
But there are other symptoms that are not so easily brushed aside. The stock value of companies like EA and Activision have been steadily dropping for the last few years. You want to blame the economy? Sure, go ahead.
But PC gaming has been exploding. More people spend more time playing games than ever before. Meanwhile, the top five games companies by value have halved in value, and those that have dropped out of the list- traditional games publishers - have been replaced by free-to-play and social companies.
Still blaming the economy?
ngmoco's Ben Cousins pointed all this out at GDC last week. He also showed us a graph comparing the history of the arcade game business to that of the console game business.

The enemy of consoles?
At some point in 1999, consoles overtook arcades, which have since become almost entirely irrelevant both as a business and as a way to consume interactive entertainment. That same year, consoles officially became as good as arcades, graphics-wise, with the launch of Dreamcast.
This year, we have seen the launch of the new iPad, a device which, despite its current whizzery, offers future powers we can only imagine. Offer a man from Mars the chance to reach out and grab an iPad or an Xbox 360. Which will it be?
But consoles are seriously great devices, important, essential. In an interview this week, Epic founder Tim Sweeney, one of the smartest thinkers in this business, described them in the simplest terms, as perfectly formed for the purpose of playing games. They are entirely engineered to output fast-moving graphics. They are connected to handheld controllers which have no other purpose than to control games. Their entire eco-system is about competition, fun, excitement.
Sweeney added that when the next generation does come - in whatever form - it will provide a graphical leap that the iPads of this world will take eight years or so to match. Eight years! That's 2020.
So, if we leave PC gaming aside, consoles will still be the best way to consume games for a span of time encompassing three more Olympic games and two World Cups and maybe even another Diablo game.
People talk about the fact that 500 million people have played Angry Birds compared to 25 million players of Call of Duty. But, really, these numbers are like comparing flying pigs with flying helicopters.
Also, Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are smart. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that any of them, possibly all of them, will create something that surprises everyone, even Apple. Perhaps we will see a unified platform, or a cloud system that really works or, hell, who knows.
The fact is that consoles are under sustained attack from alternative devices and platforms like mobile and social and free-to-play. It's like horde mode. The enemy has the numbers. The console has the firepower.
Who can predict the outcome with certainty?
But here's an indisputable idea. Any person of good sense must understand which side to root for.
|
|