Fixing Shinryu
Fixing Shinryu
The harder it is to get the rarer it is, and people like rare things.
Cloaks sell for 200-250 currently on Asura np.
Odin.Moonja said: »
I was just curious.
I'm curious why people try for a full set of these. Impact is valuable, but I wouldn't think people need a whole set of them to keep the debuff up.
Gathered this collection of lovely feedback for SE, which I may post sometime on the official forum over the weekend. Would anyone like to add a comment? Yes, it can be as funny/brutal as you want.
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Need to change the title of this thread to "*** Shinryu"
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Siren.Kruel said: »
Valefor.Cinzia said: »
If it was true, I wouldn't have been only 2/6 on cloaks when everything else was done for my 6. Then I added other people to get anything but non cloak and at least 5 others got full sets (minus cloak). Who else has over 2000+ runs data? It's obvious they made the cloak a sub drop of all other drops at a lower rate.
The other armor/weapons at ~1/50 if distributed equally, then I should be sitting at least at 5/6 or 6/6 cloaks and just missing another weapon or armor, but it's the cloak that's being last and not even close. If I were at 4/6 or 5/6 maybe I'd believe they put it as same rate, but it isn't.
The other armor/weapons at ~1/50 if distributed equally, then I should be sitting at least at 5/6 or 6/6 cloaks and just missing another weapon or armor, but it's the cloak that's being last and not even close. If I were at 4/6 or 5/6 maybe I'd believe they put it as same rate, but it isn't.
Nothing stopping something that's a 1/100 droprate taking 1/1000, just statistically speaking it's unlikely, but things completely defy probabilities every day, in all kinds of ways.
What's to say I don't have bad luck and go another 500 kills with another 4 scythes?
Do I then start saying that the scythe is a much higher droprate for me, therefor all the other rare items have a different droprate?
I'd love to complain about it but I recognise it for what it is, bad luck, or at the very least I can't make a definitive judgement on it.
Definite statements like "It's obvious they made the cloak a sub drop of all other drops at a lower rate"
should be avoided, dealing in definites when using assumptions is contrary.
I get what you are saying on the math of probabilities, but just from observation it doesn't seem like it. If you're saying the 3 pieces of armor and 2 weapons which are 5 unique items are equal in the slot and all are 1/5 chance of getting. Why after over 2000 VD runs and going further to obtain more than 6 characters worth of armor, more like 10 characters total, the cloak only dropped twice but 4 other pieces were fulfilled for 10 characters, so you have 10 Helm/Mail/Knife/Scythe, but only 2 cloaks. That doesn't make any mathematical sense. Any of those 5 items should be near completion for all 10 chars, and maybe just 1 or 2 or more of them are remaining. So the spread should be like:
10/10 Helm
9/10 Mail
10/10 Knife
9/10 Scythe
9/10 Cloaks
But it isn't.
Valefor.Cinzia said: »
That doesn't make any mathematical sense.
Here you go:
Helm, Mail, Knife, Scythe have 1% drop rate
Cloak has .2% drop rate
Mathematical sense, and no drop slots, armor slots, or sub slots required.
Carbuncle.Maletaru said: »
Valefor.Cinzia said: »
That doesn't make any mathematical sense.
Here you go:
Helm, Mail, Knife, Scythe have 1% drop rate
Cloak has .2% drop rate
Mathematical sense, and no drop slots, armor slots, or sub slots required.
Ok I guess it's just the wording, it's not sub slots or other slots, but the cloak has a different rate than the other 4 pieces is what I meant.
Valefor.Cinzia said: »
Siren.Kruel said: »
Valefor.Cinzia said: »
If it was true, I wouldn't have been only 2/6 on cloaks when everything else was done for my 6. Then I added other people to get anything but non cloak and at least 5 others got full sets (minus cloak). Who else has over 2000+ runs data? It's obvious they made the cloak a sub drop of all other drops at a lower rate.
The other armor/weapons at ~1/50 if distributed equally, then I should be sitting at least at 5/6 or 6/6 cloaks and just missing another weapon or armor, but it's the cloak that's being last and not even close. If I were at 4/6 or 5/6 maybe I'd believe they put it as same rate, but it isn't.
The other armor/weapons at ~1/50 if distributed equally, then I should be sitting at least at 5/6 or 6/6 cloaks and just missing another weapon or armor, but it's the cloak that's being last and not even close. If I were at 4/6 or 5/6 maybe I'd believe they put it as same rate, but it isn't.
Nothing stopping something that's a 1/100 droprate taking 1/1000, just statistically speaking it's unlikely, but things completely defy probabilities every day, in all kinds of ways.
What's to say I don't have bad luck and go another 500 kills with another 4 scythes?
Do I then start saying that the scythe is a much higher droprate for me, therefor all the other rare items have a different droprate?
I'd love to complain about it but I recognise it for what it is, bad luck, or at the very least I can't make a definitive judgement on it.
Definite statements like "It's obvious they made the cloak a sub drop of all other drops at a lower rate"
should be avoided, dealing in definites when using assumptions is contrary.
I get what you are saying on the math of probabilities, but just from observation it doesn't seem like it. If you're saying the 3 pieces of armor and 2 weapons which are 5 unique items are equal in the slot and all are 1/5 chance of getting. Why after over 2000 VD runs and going further to obtain more than 6 characters worth of armor, more like 10 characters total, the cloak only dropped twice but 4 other pieces were fulfilled for 10 characters, so you have 10 Helm/Mail/Knife/Scythe, but only 2 cloaks. That doesn't make any mathematical sense. Any of those 5 items should be near completion for all 10 chars, and maybe just 1 or 2 or more of them are remaining. So the spread should be like:
10/10 Helm
9/10 Mail
10/10 Knife
9/10 Scythe
9/10 Cloaks
But it isn't.
If theres a 0.2% chance or whatever to get the non-accessories drop, and then that is split among 5 items, you would need an absolutely mammoth sample size of kills to discern the drop rate of the weapons/armor. "I have 10 Knife/Helm/Mail/Scythe and 2 Cloaks" is more likely just bad luck instead of a lower drop rate.
Similarly how attestation farming you can kill the NM 20 times and not see the one you need. If I kill Quiebitiel 12 times for one attestation of harmony (based on actual events fyi), does that mean its coded to have a lower drop rate compared to dagger or club, or was it just bad luck?
Its likely that my char who went 0/430 on Gugrusaurus isnt even the worst luck someone has had, its possible theres been a singleboxer who went worse than 1/430. That person's probably turned in their 400th Gugrusaurus, got nothing, and questioned the reported 1% drop rate as ***.
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@Cinzia
you shouldn't be trying to apply "mathematical sense" to justify bad luck with probabilities.
For every person that gets a rare drop 1/1, there's probably someone who went 1/1000.
In this situation you're the latter.
Only thing mathematically you can do with these probabilities is "try" and get a baseline for the likelihood of getting it within X amount of tries.
Trying to make mathematical sense of something that doesn't fall into mathematical certainty is a fools game.
you shouldn't be trying to apply "mathematical sense" to justify bad luck with probabilities.
For every person that gets a rare drop 1/1, there's probably someone who went 1/1000.
In this situation you're the latter.
Only thing mathematically you can do with these probabilities is "try" and get a baseline for the likelihood of getting it within X amount of tries.
Trying to make mathematical sense of something that doesn't fall into mathematical certainty is a fools game.
The math that proves spreading 5 separate .2% drops across 10 different characters. Oof.
Asura.Sechs said: »
Need to change the title of this thread to "*** Shinryu"
QFT
Quote:
Trying to make mathematical sense of something that doesn't fall into mathematical certainty is a fools game.
Certainty and odds/luck are two separate things. I'd rate certainty at like 5% odds over time or even 1%. The Shin odds, y'all have shown here to be truly miniscule.
Necro Bump Detected!
[224 days between previous and next post]
fix plz
I dont want to
By giving you 0.0000001% chance to get a virtual item, Im giving you a purpose for your life so you must be grateful for that,
While many yougester feel like lost in their life because they cant find a meaning in living, you are different.
You do have a reason. You do have a hope!
While many yougester feel like lost in their life because they cant find a meaning in living, you are different.
You do have a reason. You do have a hope!
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Fixed adjective
(especially of a price, rate, or time) predetermined and not subject to or able to be changed.
"Shinryu's drop rate is fixed. 0.2% no matter which difficulty you select."
You're welcome.
(especially of a price, rate, or time) predetermined and not subject to or able to be changed.
"Shinryu's drop rate is fixed. 0.2% no matter which difficulty you select."
You're welcome.
Cerberus.Kylos said: »
This makes grinding The Wyrm God exceedingly annoying.
Title of your sextape.
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