I don't like to take hard sides in this particular debate because in probably less than an hour people are going to start arguing about whether or not Motenten's spreadsheet is more accurate than Pchan/Mdkuser's sim thing, which is why I posted only a napkin analysis above.
Mot's spreadsheet has Nefarious winning in some cases, even without extreme level correction, so you can take it for what it's worth, but you can make Rancor/Atheling win just as much. I don't personally believe that the difference is worth stressing over but I have both so I can change it up if it seems appropriate.
Here's
the spreadsheet I'm referring to and you can feel free to PM me if you have any questions about getting it set up. You'll have to enable iterative calculations (for circular references) in your spreadsheet application for this particular version of the THF spreadsheet or you can use
this version if you don't feel like messing with that.