Odorous Knives & Smithing/wood

Ok so i have 106 Smithing with every sub craft taken to 60. OK heres a lil info on this recipe.
70smith / 0~15wood (i know wood is in this range cause friend of mine with 91smith/0wood was able to start the synth and then he even went 2/5 success. leads me to believe the wood level is around 7~10 most likely. But for sure no higher then 15.
X1 fire crystal
X1 magnolia lumber
X1 white steal
X1 darksteel ingot

For me i am 1HQ, 37NQ, 2Full break... Needless to say i am 1/40 HQ on a Verified Tier2 synth....

about 6 months ago before i started smithing i found a random guy in WG to synth 4 knives for me. his level was 91 smith and i dont know wood for a fact but i remember him saying it was around/in 50's.. OK so he goes 3/4 for hq.... yes 75% hq

yesterday when i did another 7 knives and got all hq's there was another guy here doing odorous knives also, he went 3/7 for HQ AS a 92smith / 23wood.

There has to be something that doesnt follow normal rules of crafting because i find it impossiblle that a 106smith/60wood = Tier2 would get 1/40 or 2.5% HQ and the 91/92 guys got 75% HQ / 38% HQ AND ONLY TIER1.

Ok so heres my question: Does anyone know what the F@#% is up with this synth and can share there crafting results / tricks / strategies please and add levels with your HQ/NQ % results

Thanks in advance for any type of reply in hopes i may discover something lol

--Motoko

I'm thinking the sample size you witnessed is too small to make any conclusions...

The guy who went 3/4 and the one who went 3/7 might now go a combined 2 for their next 80 on HQ's. The HQ rate is probably around what you've found, these two gents just got really lucky on the HQ despite low odds of it happening in the first place.

Really as long as P(e) > 0. No matter how close P(e) approaches 0, e can still happen. Where P = probability, e = event

All I can say is don't let their results throw you off and get you down...

It's called bad luck, that's all. I went 3/9 on HQs on a batch for a friend. I've also went 1/14 on Darksteel Kukri +1. It's FFXI crafting, totally unstable.

Yeah, I was 9/46 on Prism at one point, then the math came a knocking and I went something like 1/20.

Runs happen.

I went 0/12 on shihei synths yesterday as a 100+3 woodworker. I guess I'd better get over to ffxi wiki and change shihei to a tier 0 synth.